Donald Trump’s victory is bad news for practically all European capitals, except in Budapest, where the far-right Viktor Orbán is preparing to uncork the champagne at the dinner where he will receive European leaders – Pedro Sánchez has excused his presence due to the emergence of DANA – on the occasion of the celebration of the European Political Community and the informal European Council.
At Thursday’s meeting, which brings together European Union countries and other continental allies – including the United Kingdom and others vying to join the club – Volodymyr Zelensky, who is a priori part of those most affected by Trump’s return to the White House. Essential U.S. support for Ukraine has become difficult in recent months due to Republican reluctance, and the possibility of the tap being turned off with Trump is a justified fear.
Security dependency
The emergency meeting held this Wednesday by the German and French Defense Ministers, Boris Pistorius and Sébastien Lecornu, to analyze the consequences of the American elections on “defense policy” shows that Trump’s victory poses problems from the point of view of security view. Europe.” Europe depends on the United States for defense and the Republican has come to question NATO’s role in this regard.
Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz also spoke after knowing the results. The Franco-German axis, which operates precisely with a weakened leadership, is trying to take the reins.
“We’re not in 2020 or 2016, where it was a big surprise and I think we panicked. Now we have a clearer line and more confidence,” says an EU source, who tries to see the glass half full regarding EU prevention in this scenario. A working group has been created within the European Commission to prepare for Trump’s possible return to the White House and the message that some capitals are trying to send is one of calm.
“The Union is a respectable lady of 70 years and is no longer the fragile little sister of the United States. She is an adult, vaccinated and resilient, prosperous and democratic, ready to face the challenges of the world and to defend her values, with all her partners and allies”, sources of one of the 27 copies.
An economic hole due to the trade war
Beyond security, what is most worrying is the trade war at a time when, moreover, the EU is struggling not to fall behind in the productive race due to the lethargy in which an industry not competitive entered the world of the century. XXI. Trump imposed tariffs during his first term and is now threatening to up the ante in the fight with China, but also to establish a generic rate of around 10% that would directly affect the community bloc, whose United States is the main trading partner.
A study by Goldman Sachs highlights that the impact on the European economy would be 1% of GDP, or around 150 billion euros. The most optimistic, however, see an opportunity in the worsening trade tensions between the United States and powers such as China. “An open trade conflict between China and the United States, even if it would be negative for global growth and cooperation, could give advantages to certain European countries due to the diversion of trade,” say Judith Arnal and Federico Steinberg in an article published by the Royal Institute. Elcano.
Let Putin win
Trump has boasted that he will end the war in 24 hours, but the big question is how and the fear among allies is that he will concede to Vladimir Putin. Former advisers to the populist leader have revealed that his position on Ukraine is far from that supported by Washington or the EU since the start of the conflict in 2014.
“Trump has made it very clear that he believes Ukraine, and certainly Crimea, should be part of Russia,” said Fiona Hill, former director of European and Russian affairs at the White House between 2017 and 2019, according to a book from the Journalist. David Sanger of the New York Times.
This is the worst end-of-war scenario that European allies can imagine, who have always argued that the bases for peace negotiations should be established by Ukraine, as the country under attack, and that it should come to this table with force on the battlefield. This is why enormous military aid was provided.
“The biggest danger of a new Trump presidency is letting Russian President Vladimir Putin have his way with America’s allies and cut a deal with him while excluding Ukrainian input with a phone call ‘If this were to happen, not only would Ukraine lose the war and its sovereignty, but the rest of Europe would be left alone to face the Russian threat and the country’s questionable military capabilities. Europe – and its lack of will to improve and use them – combined with a neo-isolationist and detached United States, will not be able to dissuade Russia from continuing its aggression, since war is the only way for the criminal regime Russian to survive, Patrycja Sasnal, research director at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, recently warned.
Uncertainty grips partners
If Trump is characterized by anything, it is a lack of predictability, and uncertainty is not a good ally. During his previous mandate, multilateral agreements exploded. One of the bloodiest was the exit from the Paris Agreements to try to reduce the damage from climate change. One of Biden’s first decisions was to salvage this pact.
“The US election result is a setback for global climate action, but the Paris Agreement has proven resilient and stronger than any country’s policies. The current context is very different from that of 2016. Behind the global transition lies a powerful economic impulse, which the United States led and benefited from, but which now risks losing. The devastating toll of recent hurricanes is a grim reminder that all Americans are affected by worsening climate change,” said Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation.
A risk for democracy
Trump also represents the antithesis of many European values. His fiery rhetoric and his policies based on exaggeration, even manipulation and hoaxes, constitute fertile ground for the far right.
“European leaders worry about a continued, if not irreversible, decline in democratic standards if Trump returns to the presidency. Europeans are worried not only about US domestic politics – the danger of a spread of authoritarianism in the United States – but also about the impact on the international order, which they fear could suffer yet another setback. more serious with a second Trump term. “Many fear that a Trump comeback could embolden other populist-nationalist leaders in Europe and beyond, as happened during his tenure,” warned Laura von Daniels, director of the South American research division. American, before the elections. .
The forces of this political spectrum rejoice in the victory of the one who is one of their great world leaders. “An essential victory for the world!” » celebrated the Hungarian far right Orbán while some voices directly warn of the risk for democracies. Far-right leaders, like the Italian Giorgia Meloni, will also try to get closer to Trump and try to take advantage of their good relations. And the division within the EU is another weak point. “The current situation in European politics shows internal divisions and nationalist discourses in several member states. “Trump could play the strategy of divide and rule with the European Union and undermine its unity,” the report said. think tank Strategic perspective.
