The fifth meeting of the European Political Community, a forum which brings together EU countries and its neighbors, has become a kind of group therapy in the face of Donald Trump’s victory in the United States. The worst prediction for Europe came true with the return to the White House of the populist leader, who shook up the continent during his first term.
This came as a shock to the vast majority of European leaders, with the exception of the host of the event, the Hungarian far-right Viktor Orbán, who claimed to have toasted with vodka – and not champagne because he was in Kyrgyzstan – when the results were known: “They wanted to put him in prison, confiscate his property and kill him, and now he is president. »
Europe has been preparing for this new change for a long time and the message sent by virtually all heads of government and state present at the Budapest meeting was one of calm. Each speech resembled a “coach” session: strengths and opportunities in the face of a complex geopolitical scenario, in which the EU freely admits its many competitive weaknesses.
Mr. Macron
Macron established himself as the “gentleman” of a meeting held at the Ferenc Puskás stadium, the curious setting that Orbán chose for the occasion. “We shouldn’t say whether it’s good or bad. He is American, he will defend American interests, he is legitimate; but we must be ready to defend European interests. This is the question and this must be our priority,” the Frenchman told his colleagues at the round table.
“This is a decisive moment in history,” he told the rest of the leaders, who he asked if they wanted to “read a history written by others” – among whom he cited Putin or China – or if they wanted to write their own history. history. . “Our economies are strong, our countries have sophisticated defense systems and we represent something (…). If we decide to be conscious of what we represent geopolitically and commercially, that is incredible power. There is no other market of 700 million people as united by the history of interests and values as the one that brings us together around this table,” he encouraged them.
Going from herbivore to carnivore
“The world is made up of herbivores and carnivores. If we decide to remain herbivorous, the carnivores will win and we will be a market for them. I think it would at least be a good idea to choose to be omnivorous. I don’t want to be aggressive, I just want us to be able to defend ourselves on each of these issues,” concluded Macron, who asked his counterparts not to “delegate” the security of the continent to the United States, as he has done it until now.
What they argue within the EU is that this time Trump’s victory did not surprise them like in 2016 and that the continent is prepared for the uncertainty represented by the new mandate of the populist leader and the possible decisions he will take on the other side of the Atlantic. , such as the imposition of generalized customs tariffs. Continental leaders also played down the political tsunami in Germany with the expulsion of liberals from the government of Olaf Scholz, who was absent at the meeting.
“The future of Europe is in our hands,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “It is important that we analyze what our common interests are and work on them,” he added of the relationship with the United States. “We must be more masters of our destiny, not because of Kamala Harris or Trump, but because of our children,” declared the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in the same vein, warning that the EU is a “respectful European Union”. “partner” but this must be “respected”.
“Europe cannot change the world, but it can change itself to face a changing world,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mytsotakis. “What is important is that our willingness remains open to working with the United States; They also need to show will,” declared Belgian Alexander de Croo: “Europe is ready to take care of itself, also from a security point of view.”
At the press conference following the meeting, Orbán acknowledged that there was “agreement” on the need to respond to the US elections. “There was agreement that Europe has a greater responsibility for security. “We cannot expect the Americans to protect us,” the Hungarian prime minister said.
The message, which began to take shape during a breakfast of the ambassadors of the 27 in the midst of an electoral hangover and which involves focusing on the performance of the club rather than on what the power beyond can do. Atlantic, is shared by EU leaders and not only.
The most enthusiastic about Trump’s return was Albanian Edi Rama: “There was a lot of enthusiasm, perhaps not in a good way, about his return. In my experience, when he was president, everyone said NATO would be weaker, but it was stronger. Let’s not get hysterical before we check reality.”
Orbán sows discord with Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who called Trump on the phone after his victory, kept his tone low, although one of the main analyzes of the consequences of the Republican’s return to the White House is the possibility that Washington’s position on kyiv , for whom American aid is essential. “We hope that America will be stronger. This is the kind of America Europe needs. And America needs a strong Europe,” he said.
But Orbán took advantage of the loudspeaker afforded to him by hosting the summit, in the presence of hundreds of journalists, to sow discord with Ukraine by ensuring that there were different opinions among those who “want peace or continue the war”, a pairing that he reduces to a ceasefire as a “precondition” for starting peace talks or continuing to provide aid to kyiv. “There are more and more people who want peace,” he said, convinced that their numbers increased after the US elections.
“No,” Zelensky concluded at a press conference immediately afterwards. However, it was he himself who let the room know that they could not contemplate giving in to Putin. “Some of you here have argued for Ukraine to make concessions to Putin. “It is unacceptable for Ukraine and suicide for Europe,” he defended. Zelensky recalled that this ceasefire is precisely defended by a head of government who opposes Ukraine’s entry into NATO.
The Rutte strategy: warning Trump of the dangers of Russia and China for the United States
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also had kind words for the president-elect. “It’s their success,” he said of the allies’ increased defense spending. “It was he who encouraged us to reach 2% [del PIB]“, recalled the Dutchman. Many countries have already arrived and his predecessor left office ensuring that this percentage was a floor. “We need to do more,” Rutte acknowledged.
Rutte also already has a strategy to try to convince Trump of the need to keep Vladimir Putin at bay given allies’ fears that he would sponsor a deal that would mean Ukraine’s loss of sovereignty over some of the invaded territories. “More and more, North Korea, China and Russia are working together against Ukraine,” summarized the head of NATO, who assured that it represents a “threat” for Europe, but also in the Indo-Pacific and, therefore, for the United States: “I look forward to sitting down with him and seeing how we can collectively address this threat and keep our part of the world secure.
