The ECB efforts – this reduction in types is not landed in the economy in its entirety. At least, this was seen by the latest credit data published by the Central Bank itself. Among the last statistics of liquidity, loan to non -financial societies, It stuck in May by 2.5% Intercide compared to 2.6%. All this in the midst of interest rates, where at the same time he was already attacked by a neutral zone at a price of money. Analysts fear that these data are clear, that the policy of the monetary institution does not leak the economy.
From 12,000 million euros, the monthly flow of loan for households was the lowest since November last year. From them, it is assumed that with these figures “it is clear that Monetary flexibility slowly filters the economy “The field of this will be the fact that “uncertainty in the economy has reduced the influence that should be obtained by interest rates.”
In this sense, the Dutch company indicates that if the trend continues, they believe that this will lead to a reduction in types, at least the ECB. In addition, the Dutch organization notes that “this is the first time that since July last year there is failure.” What reflects this “The transfer of monetary policy weakens”Field
While the types were loaded, strong debates about the transfer of monetary policy were held in the institution. At that time, the strength of the balance of banks was the key to explaining the “delay”. Philip Lane, the chief economist of the ECB, said only a year ago that “a huge liquidity allowed an orderly reaction, but as it reduced, loans did this.” Now the problem would come from the other side of the balance, Users are not looking for a loan to aversion to riskAlthough the “price of money” is cheaper.
According to Morgan Stanley, the general sensation between companies and consumers has maximum uncertainty for both tariffs and European context. That is why they slow down their plans and avoid debts. “Our expectations show more complex Europe. Despite the solid start in 2025, our economists expect growth to be slow. ” It also indicates that the US tariffs are the key to explaining why European companies receive less loansThe field “Fourth income of Europe was received in the USA”The field in this context of uncertainty regarding what will happen with encumbrance, movements are frozen.
In addition to loans, doubt regarding this is observed in M3, statistics, which reflect money, deposits (both in the short and long -term perspective) and other assets. In short, this serves to try to measure the general liquidity in the economy. In this sense, although he starred since the end of 2023, there was something more stagnant An increase of 3.9% to 16.9 billion. Euro. In January, he was already at 16.8 billion after rampant growth from 16.5% in September.
As for the bank loan only for households that accelerated during 2024, it was stagnated with only the growth of the intermenum 0.2%, which remain months a month that we were in 2025. ”In May, there was a slight slowdown in growth rateWhich is currently at the lowest level since November: “They comment from ING. In general, ”we observe the effect of stabilization, which suggests that the conditions for the flexibility of monetary flexibility are no longer moving to the credit channel. “
A sea of uncertainty
This is especially important because the rebound of the European economy after stagnation was founded in 2024, except for the highest government spending It should restore 0.9%Field
In any case, this situation, according to the ECB itself in his May business examination, will be only as long as the danger of tariffs remains. In a survey of the Central Bank for the 79 greatest business representatives, this shows that most He stops his expenses, Hiring and investments until he sees how the situation is being solved.
“Many suppliers say that their customers stop their projects in the face of current uncertainty.” Landing in encumbrance, in particular, the ECB defended this “the main consequences of this at the moment He prompted the company to pause and overestimate their situation, In particular, his business in the USA. ”
At the moment, the tariff situation has not been very solved. There are several days left for the implementation of mutual tariffs. It already works total 10% tax, Added up to 25% for the price of steel, aluminum, cars and cars, which mainly affect this region. However, 50% of the total can be activated if there is no consent. At the moment, the tension expects as much as possible to find out how the contract between them is decided. In addition to knowing whether it will be a living, look what the last tribute on the table, because in the case of the United Kingdom, the tariffs were as a result than before the beginning of this process.
