The image of Pedro Sánchez sitting this Tuesday in the face of a new parliamentary defeat for his government is the frozen image of a legislature that is going through its most turbulent hours. The president does not usually attend the votes of the first plenary session of the week, unless they are important, the numbers to advance them are tight and there are also guarantees that they will take place. But the seven deputies of the Junts decided to make a show of force once again and to inflict a direct and direct blow on him.
Without prior warning, Carles Puigdemont’s men maneuvered to the extreme to break their word and move from abstention to “no” to the bill to limit seasonal rentals and real estate speculation in city centers. Thus, with the strength of the votes of the PP and Vox, they have reversed the parliamentary process of the initiative. One more.
The scene is a faithful reflection of the political situation that the government has been facing since the summer. The Junts deputies have broken away from the parliamentary majority that supported the Executive and have begun to operate in important votes as another opposition group alongside the PP and Vox. A scenario that the PSOE does not consider a short-term remedy and that the Executive attributes to a reaction due to the CPS’s pact with the ERC to preside over the Generalitat.
“Everything has changed since Salvador Illa’s inauguration,” laments the presidential team, which assumes that the parliamentary route of each standard that passes through Congress can become a nightmare in the coming months. “We hope they reconsider their decision, but for now, what we have is a sometimes inflammatory speech that we assume is influenced by their own internal process. They must digest that Illa is president and realize that it is not sustainable to always be on the side of the PP and Vox,” reflects one of the members of the government closest to the president.
Pessimism is currently spreading in the ranks of the PSOE. The dialogue with the leadership of the Junts is permanent and we expect the Catalan independentists to schedule a new meeting at the highest level between Carles Puigdemont and Santos Cerdán, secretary of the Socialist Organization and main interlocutor of the former president. This appointment, for which Ferraz is still waiting for a date, is marked in red on the calendar of the Junts and both parties agree that the future of the legislature will largely depend on what is discussed, agreed or committed. And both parties are also preparing for the meeting to turn into an exchange of harsh reproaches.
“The Spanish government must not forget that it does not have an absolute majority” Puigdemont himself published this Wednesday on his social networks after criticizing his party for rejecting the housing proposal in Congress and acting in opposition alongside the PP and Vox. “Once you understand that a minority government cannot act as if it had an absolute majority, we will all win. Because that means replacing imposition with negotiation, and that will not confuse the will to negotiate and reach agreements with the desire to dry your shoes before entering the house,” he continued.
In reality, the former president’s message once again leaves the door open to future negotiations and future agreements. But let’s remember in passing that the price of the seven Junts deputies will never be cheap for Pedro Sánchez. “Losing the respect of those who have the votes you need and not working hard to convince them in each vote is the most direct path to failure. I repeat: these are the rules of the game that we have established from day one, so we should not appear surprised. Are not a decree, a law, an appointment negotiable? Our vote cannot therefore be taken for granted. Not ours,” warned Puigdemont.
Although some within the government believe that the internal congress of the Junts, at the end of October, can help to pave the way and bring Puigdemont back to the path of parliamentary collaboration, there are also voices that are beginning to sound the alarm that this drift could have no turning back. Because no one expects this congress to result in anything other than a strengthening of the leadership of the former president and, consequently, of the hardest political line of the Catalan independence movement. And because no progress is expected in the short term regarding the application of the amnesty to their procedural situation.
The question is what will happen if the months go by and the blockade persists in the face of a right-wing opposition parliamentary majority with the PP, Vox and Junts against the government. The president’s message is resounding: keep moving forward no matter what. But few believe that a situation of extreme parliamentary minority, with little room to promote reforms, is sustainable in the medium or long term.
The next step for the government will therefore be to present a draft general state budget to Congress and wait for the wind coming from Waterloo to change. The Executive does not hide that the expectations today to be able to obtain the support of Junts for these accounts are almost non-existent. But they also leave the door open for months to help get out of the blockade.
“We really hope that they will reconsider their decision. They now have to face a period of reflection and we respect that. But these budgets will be good for Catalonia and we will present them to Congress, we will debate them and we will defend them. And we have already reached agreements on several occasions that seemed impossible, so this time it must be no different,” reflects another member of the presidential cabinet.
Meanwhile, the second vice-president went to Barcelona this Wednesday. The day after the latest rudeness of Junts in Congress, Yolanda Díaz wanted to sit down with the Catalan employers, very close politically to that of Carles Puigdemont. The official agenda focused on the negotiations for the reduction of working hours in which the Ministry of Labor is working, although the political context is relevant. The bet of the coalition partners of the PSOE is clear: rebuild the bridges with Carles Puigdemont to rebuild the house of cards of a parliamentary majority that allows to promote at least some general budgets of the State that support the horizon more uncertain than ever of a legislature until 2027.
