The mirage is over. The gutter, which German export experienced at dawn of spring from the effect of the expectation of tariffs (Front loading This is the term that used Anglo -Saxon analysts) disappeared after he began to adjust in April. German commercial data can confirm that The new US commercial policy begins to harm And that Germany is especially vulnerable to tariff eyelashes that leave the oval cabinet of the White House.
German exports fell more than expected in May, since the cost of delivery in the United States fell to the lowest level over more than three years amid the tariff threats of President Donald Trump. According to data published on Tuesday by the Federal Statistical Agency, Total export from Germany decreased by 1.4% compared to the previous monthThe data is surprisingly worse than the average rating -0.5% in the review Bloomberg Analysts and happen with a revised decrease by 1.6% in April (initial data amounted to 1.7%). In particular, the export of assets from Germany to the United States decreased by 7.7% per month. The cost of export in the United States has fallen to 12.1 billion euros, which is the lowest since March 2022.Field
At the same time, German imports collapsed by 3.8%Including a fall of more than 10% of sales from the USA. The commercial balance increased to 18.4 billion. euros (more excess) from 15.7 billion euros (considered) in April.
“In May Investment trendWhat meant another disappointing month for German exports, “However, this effect has already been dissipated,” says his chief economist Karsten Bzeski in a client’s note.
A The European Union is looking for This week A Preliminary commercial agreement with the United States This allows you to establish a 10% tariff after a deadline on August 1, while both parties agree on a permanent agreement. On Monday, Trump announced the first series of the promised letters that threaten to impose taxes to higher partners, but postponed an increase in tariffs, at least until next month.
Faced with the future German export continues to encounter solid winds againstThe field “Although the EU yesterday did not receive a new tariff letter from the White House, the risk (more) tariff Strengthening the euroNot only against the US dollar, but also in effective nominal terms, he adds to the problems of exporters, ”says Bzeski.
“If the EU and the United States does not reach an agreement that significantly avoids an increase in the American tariff American market In it The second largest problem For German exporters. A The trend of exports from goods to China was down. For some time, and at the moment, radical recovery in this market is not expected. Only exports to other Eurozone countries are currently stable, ”says Ralph Solin from Commerzbank.
Growth will have to wait
Germany is considered especially vulnerable to American tariffs and is currently still subject to sector for products, such as cars (25%). President BundesbankJoachim Nagel, came to warn that the largest European economy is managing The risk of transferring a recession From the consequences of tariffs. At the same time, the plans of the new government to significantly increase the costs of defense and infrastructure brought some optimism; But this is going to see if this is enough.
The German gross domestic product (GDP) grew at the beginning of the year, but opinions differ from whether the impulse will disappear or become a sustainable restoration. An increase of 0.4% from January to March was partially from the fact that companies and exporters advanced to US taxes, although private consumption and investments also recovered.
Separate data published on Monday showed an unexpected increase in industrial production in May, which strengthens the hope that the economy will be able to move forward after many years of stagnation. Nevertheless, Doubts are preserved And everything seems to indicate that the first half of the year will show a flat line. A fear that Germany beats historical notes by adding The third year in a row without economic growthField
In more general terms, with macroeconomic data of the first two months of the second quarter, the German economy seems to Draw for new stagnation or even a slight reductionProtect from ING. “Despite the fact that retail sales and construction activities have fallen compared to the first quarter, a small rebound of industrial production is not enough to compensate for the planned trade ballast,” they conclude.
“In these times Great uncertainty And High volatilityIt is too early to talk about reduction in the second quarter, but, despite the growing optimism and signs of a cyclic excess, the German economy will have to Wait at least a quarter To present specific data that correspond to an improvement in the sensation, ”Brzeski closes.
“Foreign trade will undoubtedly slow down the German economy in the coming months, thus partially neutralizing the incentive provided by monetary and financial policy. It is unlikely that problems with export prevent the restoration of the economy, but they will contribute to it, quite moderate, ”Solin from Commerzbank draws.
He Foreign sector It was Spears Successful until the German economic model. Export with high cost (cars, pharmaceutical products …) with patina marketing (Efficiency Made in Germany) In addition to Russian gas, which arrived at a flat rate in German industry, he headed the European locomotive in Wolandas. However, the world after the pandemic is different, and Germany pays Chinese boom (from a true client to a cruel competitor), The end of Russian gasThe highest interest rates And Loss of competitiveness their companies. Commercial punishment in the United States is lace in such an “ideal storm”.
