Will there be a budget for Christmas? The hypothesis of a motion of no confidence that would overthrow Barnier’s government in the coming weeks and leave France without a budget by 2025 is beginning to be taken very seriously.
Witness Monday’s excitement in the financial markets. International investors are still there and the Treasury raised 8.3 billion euros without drama in the afternoon. But, in the face of political turbulence, banks are now demanding higher interest rates to lend money to the French state. The gap between the rates requested from France and Germany for a ten-year loan increased during the session to 0.83%, its highest level since mid-June. Before the dissolution of the National Assembly it was only 0.5%. France now must pay more than Portugal or Spain to obtain funds, and is approaching the level imposed on Greece and Italy.
“We are assuming the risk of a Greek scenario”warned government spokesperson Maud Bregeon on Sunday, November 24 in The Parisian, by highlighting the risk of a financial crisis, as in Greece in the early 2010s. The result is a question: “Who wants to give the French as a Christmas gift for 2025 a deficit of more than 7% and rising interest rates? »
“A leap into the unknown”
You must not give in “to the little music that consists of saying: “If one day this budget is rejected, if there is censorship, it will be dramatic, it will be chaos, etc.” “, responded Marine Le Pen on Monday, leaving her meeting with Michel Barnier in Matignon. A way to clear the ground in the face of possible censure of the executive by the left and the National Assembly (RN). Eric Coquerel, a firm supporter of the motion of censure, also wants to be reassuring: even if no budget is approved, there will be no “No closure, no chaos, no disaster,” states the president (La Francia Insumisa, LFI) of the Assembly’s finance commission, in a video released on Sunday.
Chaos or not chaos? The outcome will depend in part on the timing of any censorship. Between now and Christmas, Michel Barnier’s opponents will initially have several opportunities to overthrow his government. In fact, three budget texts currently being examined in the Senate will return to the Assembly, where the Government will undoubtedly try to approve them, calling into question their existence within the framework of article 49.3 of the Constitution. First the Social Security budget for 2025, on December 4. Then, the 2024 end-of-term bill, two days later. The general budgets for 2025, finally, around December 20.
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