The two great allies of the United States in the Pacific reacted differently to the return of Donald Trump to the White House: phlegm tinged with apprehension in Japan, frank concern in Seoul. Unlike the Republican candidate’s victory in 2016, which took them by surprise, this time the Japanese were not really surprised. “With a majority in both chambers and allies on the Supreme Court, Donald Trump will follow his instincts without the slightest restraint and Japan should expect it”estimates Tetsuo Kotani, member of the Japan Institute of International Affairs.
Tokyo had prepared for a victory for Donald Trump by sending Taro Aso, a right-wing figure from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), to New York in April to meet with the Republican candidate who had received him. But the president-elect’s refusal to maintain a tête-à-tête with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who, after the recent summits of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC), has Lima, then G-20, in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), planned to go to New York to meet with him, could indicate, according to the Japanese press, that Ishiba is not Trump’s favorite. In 2016, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (2012-2020) was the first foreign leader to be welcomed by Donald Trump a week after his election.
The meeting with Ishiba, carefully prepared by Tokyo, was canceled on the pretext that the president-elect will not have any tête-à-tête with a foreign leader before his inauguration, scheduled for January 20, 2025. Donald Trump does not seem to have hesitated to put Mr. Ishiba, weakened by his party’s defeat in the October 27 elections, in an embarrassing situation by this last-minute refusal.
South Korean leaders, for their part, are worried about the return to power of Donald Trump, with whom they have never had much affinity: “deal”hanging over their heads, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would be a prelude to difficult days ahead for Seoul.
Trade frictions
South Korea and Japan expect trade frictions, such as increased tariffs to reduce the US trade deficit, and demands to increase their contribution to the US troop presence on their territory (58,000 men in Japan and 27,000 in South Korea). . Seoul and Tokyo have taken the lead in increasing their shares. Japan has also committed to doubling its defense budget (from 1% to 2% of GDP) over the next five years. Although it has always been an unconditional ally of the United States, South Korea is considered by the president-elect as a ” burden ” but also… “a money making machine” who should pay to be defended.
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