Politicians consume investigations like doses of fentanyl. Journalists are not left out. The level of addiction to this substance knows no limits. The more surveys we know about, the more we want to absorb the data from the next ones. There is no time to suffer from withdrawal syndrome. A month after the legislative elections, new deliveries are already starting to appear, even if their value is then very relative.
Its interest as a placebo should not be excluded. They make politics, managed in a world full of uncertainties, an activity in which some believe it is possible to make a precise judgment on what citizens want. And in addition, this theoretically allows us to know people’s opinions in relation to the measures approved by a government or the trajectory of an opposition party. In the end, it is always possible to blame the referee and be wary of polls that harm you because of their supposedly perverse influence on the popular will.
The Popular Party took advantage of its absolute majority in the Senate to create a commission of inquiry into the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) and the management of José Félix Tezanos, 78, its president since 2018. Appointed by the government and confirmed After the 2023 elections, the controversial and often failed results of its polls have eroded its credibility.
The right-wing press systematically uses the expression “the CEI of Tezanos”. It is not only in this ideological area that Tezanos’ credit has been reduced to little more than zero. Professionals in the sector criticize him for making unjustifiable decisions and politicizing the institution.
To begin the commission’s work, the PP made the strange decision to start with criticism from the head of the CEI instead of Tezanos himself, so that he could defend himself from the start. This Thursday, Narciso Michavila, president of the GAD3 company, appeared with the investigations of which he has been advising the PP since the days of Pablo Casado. Its clients are several companies and media, including the ABC newspaper.
Michavila is Tezanos’ sworn enemy. He is the professional who most criticized the president of the CEI. Their attacks are not much different from those launched by other experts in the polling industry. Tezanos transformed the CEI “into a betting house with rigged roulette,” wrote Héctor Cebolla, a researcher at the CSIC, on this newspaper’s Piedras de Papel blog in May.
The president of GAD3 did not limit himself in the Senate to highlighting the errors of the CIS, but also its working method, which he described as a “black box” whose results it is impossible to reproduce. Regarding Tezanos’ goals, he was blunt: “I have no doubt that his intention is to manipulate.”
As an example, he cited the disappearance of barometers specifically dedicated to immigration and defense, supposedly so as not to give results that embarrass the Government. Furthermore, the center has not questioned the monarchy’s record since 2015, an omission which can only be intentional.
Michavila highlighted the September CIS survey (question 9) from which the title emerged that immigration has become the number one problem for Spaniards (30% say it is one of the three main problems). He did this to emphasize that this title is “a lie”. His argument is that the CEI does not bring together criticism of politicians regarding this open question. 20.6% say “political issues in general” are among the three biggest problems. 12.2% comment on “the bad behavior of politicians”. 4.8% mention “what political parties do”. Three different ways of referring to the same thing.
Other experts have pointed out that the order of the questionnaire influences responses when assessing concerns about immigration. In this case, several questions arise before about the inequalities between rich and poor countries and if they are “one of the causes that explain the increase in the immigrant population in countries like Spain”.
The commission’s socialist spokesperson did not give in when Michavila declared that “the PSOE gives the rest of the parties a thousand thoughts on Spanish society.” José Javier Izquierdo’s objective was not to talk about the CEI, which he did not bother to do, but to criticize whoever was appearing. Its first example was the advancement of the elections in Castilla y León by Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, based on GAD3 polls which predicted that he could obtain an absolute majority, which was not the case. We must also take into account that Mañueco’s campaign was not exactly brilliant.
Izquierdo directly asked Michavila if he was an advisor to Pablo Casado and now Núñez Feijóo, which is known. Michavila preferred not to respond.
Concerning his failure in the 2023 elections, where he experienced a real disaster, Michavila did not ignore these errors and did not minimize them: “For us, it is a tragedy”. Izquierdo recalled that during this campaign he announced that the sum of the PP and Vox would exceed 180 seats (it remained at 170). These ten seats made the difference between governing or remaining in opposition.
It is worth noting that, even if the error existed, what most marked Michavila’s image were his appearances at rallies and interviews in which he was adamant about what would happen in the elections. He said it with such conviction that it seemed like the outcome was already decided. On May 3, just before the regional and municipal elections, he declared that “Pedro Sánchez will lose the (general) elections by an overwhelming majority.”
In July 2022 he saw this very clearly and predicted that the PP would obtain more than two and a half million votes from Sánchez by the end of 2024 (in the end there will be 339,119). In reality, Michavila has spent this entire legislature making wild predictions. In April 2020, in the midst of the pandemic, he was already beginning to consider Sánchez dead: “It is obvious that at the end of 2021, Sánchez will not be part of the government.” The reporters were asking questions and it was impossible for him to refuse the bait.
Regardless, the assessment of CIS errors based on the actions of private companies is highly questionable. Everyone can fail, but some do more often than others and a public company should not just be as bad as a private company.
Just before the final week of campaigning for June’s European elections, Tezanos anticipated a Socialist victory with around a three-point lead (the ranges were 31.6%-33.2% for the PSOE and 28.3%- 30.5% for the PP). . In the elections, the PP won by four points (33.9%-29.9%). Other strong of those who make an era.
The Senate Commission of Inquiry is a trick of the PP to try to exhaust the government. What’s even more obvious is that Tezanos is missing more than just a fairground shotgun. It does not seem that Moncloa is unhappy with him, so he must have other virtues for the president of the government. Maybe one day you will be encouraged to share them with everyone.
