Far from being reduced, CO2 emissions linked to the combustion of oil, gas and coal reach a new maximum

Despite the urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions to combat climate change, there is no sign that they have peaked: emissions will continue to increase in 2024, according to scientists at the Carbon Budget Project. The burning of oil, gas and coal – fossil fuels – is causing this increase.

In fact, greenhouse gas emissions caused by these fossils reached their record this year: 37.4 gigatons, or 0.8% more than in 2023. This means that, even if there are other smaller sources of CO2 that are contained (such as those from changes in land use), the total volume released into the atmosphere will increase this year. Exactly the opposite of what the science says needs to be done to combat climate change: a drop in emissions.

The data comes as delegations from nearly 200 countries gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the COP29 Climate Summit. A summit organized for the third time in a row in a consecutive petro-state and in a country whose president, Ilham Aliyev, declared at the inauguration that “oil and gas are gifts from God”.

Already in 2009, the world admitted, when signing the Copenhagen Accord, that “drastic reductions” in gas emissions were necessary to be able to “limit the increase in global temperature below 2°C” . In fact, this is the heart of the fight against climate change.

In 2019, an assessment by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) found that, when it came to reducing emissions, the past years could be described as a “lost decade”. And it calculated that these emissions must be reduced by 50% over the next 10 years to meet the Paris Agreement. The opposite is happening.

Since 2019, only the covid 19 crisis has reduced the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere in 2020. Since then, global emissions have increased year after year to exceed previous maximum peaks, as reflected in the budgetary project of carbon analysis. The growth of emissions from oil, gas and even coal has marked this upward line.

Exeter Global Systems Institute researcher Pierre Friedlingstein adds that “there is no indication that peak fossil fuel use has been reached, while the impacts of climate change become increasingly dramatic.” And he warns that “time is running out”.

In this sense, the chief researcher of the Australian CSIRO, Pep Canadell, calculates that “we have six years of emissions left at this level to devour the carbon budget that would allow us to maintain additional global warming at 1.5 °C”. ”, according to what he said during a meeting of journalists at the Science Media Center (SMC).

This means that, according to scientific calculations, at this rate of emissions, in just six years, the maximum volume of gas that humanity could afford will have been injected into the atmosphere if it wanted to limit the increase in temperature . of the planet at 1.5ºC at the end of the century. Because this is how climate inertia works once CO2 is added to the atmosphere and because this warming limit helps avoid the most harmful effects of climate change.

Natural sinks, essential

In absolute terms, while the European Union and the United States have reduced their emissions, India and, to a lesser extent, China have increased. The two Asian powers consumed more coal than a year ago. In addition, international aviation has influenced the increase in oil-related emissions and analysts believe that “these will continue to grow”.

Another aspect addressed by this work – which involved 119 researchers from 86 institutions and 19 countries – is that of natural carbon sinks. Forests, soils and oceans swallow up to half of the CO2 caused by the current model of human production and consumption. A capacity that, as global temperatures continue to rise, could decline. A problem for balancing the quantity of carbon in the atmosphere and achieving the objective of climate neutrality in the world by 2050. In other words, as much CO2 is absorbed as it is emitted.

“We cannot replace the ability to absorb CO2 from natural sinks with technology. Under no circumstances. We cannot industrially build infrastructure capable of retaining even 20 or 10% of emissions, and natural sinks absorb up to 50%, Canadell warns.