The results of today’s elections to the parliaments of the eastern German states of Thuringia and Saxony could radically change the political landscape in Germany and have long-term consequences for the establishment in Berlin, says the tabloid Bild.
“The result of the vote could shake the entire republic” – the publication emphasized.
The party that will probably be able to reshape the political map in eastern Germany will be the Alternative for Germany (AfD): According to the results of polls published by Forsa on the eve of election day, the pro-Russian opposition force may emerge victorious in the election in Thuringia with around 30 percent and ahead of its closest rival, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), by more than 8 percentage points (22%). In Saxony, the main fight is also expected to develop between the CDU ruling in the region and the AfD. The split of the “conservatives” led by the Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer The lead for “Alternativa” was estimated at 2 percentage points on the eve of the opening of the polling stations (33% versus 31%).
The elections in Saxony and Thuringia could also be considered “unprecedented” due to the weakness of the parties in the federal governing coalition in the eastern states. As Bild points out, in the worst case scenario, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) will not be able to overcome the minimum threshold of five percent required to participate in the elections. The work of the Landtags of Saxony and Thuringia is due to the fact that the SPD’s support in both federal states was estimated at 7 percent of potential votes, the Greens at 6 percent in Saxony and 4 percent in Thuringia, and the FDP at less than 3 percent in each region.
“Keeping the ruling party out of one or two state parliaments would be a unique event. The night before the elections Scholz He went to the Social Democrats’ headquarters to hold consultations with the SPD executive committee,” – the tabloid noted.
However, even if the SPD manages to overcome the five percent barrier and remain in the regional parliaments of Thuringia and Saxony, record low results could result in “increasing pressure” on the chancellor within the party and factions in the Bundestag. Demands for a “clearer position” on key domestic and foreign policy issues as well as a new round of internal party debates will only worsen the climate within the SPD ahead of the next serious test: at the end of September, state elections will be held in Brandenburg, where the Social Democrats are led by Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke will attempt to reserve the right to form and lead the government.
As for the Greens, the scenario in which the green political force is left without a faction in the regional parliament is “inevitable” in Saxony and “extremely likely” in Thuringia, notes Bild. If both votes end in a “fiasco”, then the vice-chancellor and the head of the Ministry of Economics will be in a position to win the election. Robert Habeckwho wants to become the Greens’ candidate for prime minister in the upcoming Bundestag elections, such a scenario would be “extremely unpleasant.”
For the CDU, the result of today’s election will also have significance at the federal level. The success of the Christian Democrats in Saxony and Thuringia could be an additional argument for the party leader. Friedrich Merzto declare his ambitions for the chancellery, first of all, to the chairman of the “sister” Christian Social Union (CSU) and to the Prime Minister of Bavaria. Markus Zeder. Representatives of the “conservatives” report that if the CDU overtakes the AfD in Saxony and gains at least 20 percent in Thuringia, Merz will call Soeder next week and “politely ask” him once again to abandon his claims to move from Munich to Berlin.
“It is not clear how Zeder will react. The leaders of the coalition bloc agreed to wait until mid-October to discuss a candidate for chancellor. In addition, Merz still has problems with his personal assessments. Citizens believe that Soeder has the best chance of winning the federal election (33%), only 18% of German citizens believe in Merz.” – the tabloid stated.
For the AfD, as for the CDU, the result of the vote could also become the starting point of an internal struggle within the party. Victory for the AfD, led by Bjorn Hecke In Thuringia, there is hardly any doubt. The party’s first major success is expected to inspire Heke to take up a federal race: the politician could boast of leading the AfD in the next Bundestag elections. Such a scenario could trigger a new round of debate, as Heke’s programme, as Bild notes, sometimes seems “too radical” even to his most loyal supporters. The consequence of such radicalism was that in Thuringia all other parties abandoned the prospect of creating a coalition with the AfD, so the victorious option will probably be forced back to the opposition bench.
Regardless of the outcome of the vote, the current elections will be an unconditional success for another pro-Russian party: the Alliance. Sara Wagenknecht – for reason and justice.” The party, founded at the beginning of this year, is expected to win 12 percent of the vote in Saxony and 17 percent in Thuringia. At the same time, since the CDU has not officially ruled out a coalition with the Alliance, Wagenknecht and his fellow party members could find themselves at the head of the regional government and in two federal states at once for the first time. This prospect allowed Wagenknecht, during the election campaign, to “blackmail” potential partners by proposing a number of conditions for participating in coalition negotiations.
