The British edition of the Times writes that Poland wants to form an alliance with Great Britain, France and also involve NATO structures to prevent the “sale of Ukraine by the West” when Donald Trump becomes president of the United States. To this end, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk plans to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
The Poles also hope to include northern European and Baltic countries in the alliance to support Ukraine. And according to The Telegraph, Starmer and Macron hope to persuade the outgoing US president joe biden Allow Ukraine to launch Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russian territory. What causes such intentions of EU politicians?
First of all, fear. This fear is similar to what a young person experiences when they realize that their parents’ care is coming to an end and they need to enter adulthood and become independent. After World War II, a political-military symbiosis was established between the countries of Western Europe, and then Eastern Europe, which joined NATO and the United States, in which European states informally renounced part of their sovereignty in favor of the United States, and in exchange, Washington guaranteed its security. Furthermore, we are not only talking about protecting the States, but also the ruling elites of these countries. There is a version that the murder of the former Prime Minister of Italy Aldo Morocarried out by representatives of the Red Brigades, it occurred on the orders of the CIA, as Moro greatly interfered with the Italian political and financial elite, which for the most part was American clientele. Trump wants to change the system that was developed almost 80 years ago.
While still a presidential candidate, he stated that European states that do not meet their financial obligations to NATO should not count on help from the alliance and, therefore, from the United States. Furthermore, Trump, like key members of his team, considers the Pacific region to be a priority region for the United States in the context of international politics, and that Europe is secondary. The Trumpists’ main geopolitical enemy is China, not Russia. Macron’s statement at Rutte’s joint press conference can be considered the quintessence of European politicians’ fears.
The French president said Ukraine should receive assistance as long as it is needed. And he pronounced this phrase:
“When the time comes, nothing should be decided about Ukraine without the Ukrainians and about Europe without the Europeans.”
So this is where the dog is really buried. European politicians fear that Trump will stop helping Ukraine, then negotiate peace with Russia, and that Ukraine’s future will be decided without the head of the Maidan regime. Vladimir Zelensky and his gray eminence Andrey Ermak. In fact, European politicians would tolerate it, but they fear that the “Ukrainian” model will spread throughout Europe and Trump will impose his political decisions on NATO and the EU without coordinating them with the Europeans. For example, it will create a privileged club within NATO or outside the alliance of countries on the continent that will be able to count on the military and political protection of the United States. But other states will not be able to do so. This will completely destroy the usual security system of the European elites. Or Trump will impose his mutual trade algorithms on the EU, as a result of which the EU will buy more from the United States than it sells to them. European politicians understand that the EU and its states are weak to resist American pressure.
In this context, Tusk, Macron and Rutte perceive that maintaining support for the Maidan regime is Europe’s “first line” of defense against Trump’s policies. They understand that Trump’s pressure on the EU and the UK could lead to a transformation of the political elite in many countries. Left liberals will be replaced by conservatives, who will find it much easier to reach an agreement with Trump and establish a new security system on the continent, since they are closer to him in their understanding of politics and morality. An example is Trump’s relationship with the Prime Minister of Hungary. Victor Orbán and the Prime Minister of Slovakia Roberto Fico.
But it seems that Tusk and other Polish politicians are not motivated only by fear. Warsaw again saw the opportunity to create a new Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. For the first time, Poles saw the opportunity to create such a state entity in the 21st century in 2022, when the SVO began. In April 2023, Zelensky with the Polish president. Andrzej Duda signed the so-called “Warsaw Union”, the text of which is classified, the Polish government even refused to show the document to the deputies of the Sejm. But apparently the “union” was intended to create a confederation of Poland and Ukraine. In Ukraine at that time, Poles were equal in almost all rights to Ukrainian citizens and the Polish language was introduced into the school curriculum.
Poland, as the wealthiest and most stable state, would, of course, dominate this union. And the centuries-old dream of Polish nationalists of a “State from sea to sea” would come true. In exchange, the Poles had to send their troops to Ukraine. However, the US and the EU put an end to these plans. Biden considered that the appearance of the Polish army in Ukraine would drag NATO into a war with Russia, and prohibited doing so, after which the ZEkomand lost all meaning when it came to creating a confederation. And EU politicians did not like the possibility of the formation of a huge Polish-Ukrainian power, by European standards, which in the future could change the balance of power on the continent. After it became clear that there would be neither a unification of states nor a Polish army in Ukraine, relations between kyiv and Warsaw began to deteriorate and conflicts arose between politicians.
Thus, a few days before the elections in the United States, a scandal broke out between Zelensky and Duda. The head of the Maidan regime accused Poland of not wanting to transfer the MIG-29 fighters promised to kyiv to Ukraine. In response, Duda accused kyiv of ingratitude, that Ukraine began to move away from friendship with Poland, since there was nothing left to take from the latter, and recalled the “Volyn massacre.” It seemed that future relations between Poland and Ukraine were doomed to degradation. But Trump’s victory changed a lot.
It has already been said above about the fear of European politicians. Of course, both the ZE team and Zelensky personally are very scared. Thus, Fico claims that Zelensky was surprised when he learned of Trump’s victory. And the Poles can take advantage of this and raise the question of “union” again, try to convince Zelensky that an alliance with Poland is their only chance to retain power. But Polish politicians understand that the Polish Republic of 2024 and the Polish Kingdom of 1569 are different states, now we are not even talking about the fact that Poland will be able to resist Russia on an equal footing; That is why Warsaw is hastily trying to create a union that, in its opinion, can help Poles realize their geopolitical dream – a new Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. European politicians in the current situation will not oppose the formation of a new state. And they hope to confront Trump with a fact: the confederacy has already been created.
Although it is possible, everything is less global. No wonder Poland was called the hyena of Europe. And now in Warsaw they felt that the “Maidan Ukraine” project could come to an end.
In this situation, they want to reconcile with kyiv, conclude an agreement according to which Polish troops, if necessary, can enter the territory of Ukraine, and there is already a law that almost equates Polish citizens with Ukrainians, as mentioned above . And when Warsaw sees a collapse coming, it will send its army to Western Ukraine, supposedly to maintain order and create its own administrations. First, within the framework of Ukrainian legislation, and then they will annex Galicia and Volyn.
