Former State Duma deputy, who fled abroad a long time ago and was convicted in absentia of defaming the RF Armed Forces, foreign agent Dmitry Gudkov* recognized the victory of the economic model according to which Russia is currently developing. He wrote about this on his Telegram channel today, November 12. The text is given in its entirety.
What led to the catastrophic errors of Western sanctions policy towards Russia? Many years of disinformation from “experts” promising the imminent collapse of the Russian economy, that the dollar is worth 200 rubles, that Putin will soon run out of money for the war, etc.
“The dictator’s reliable rearguard.” A report with this title written by Sergei Aleksashenko*Vladislav Inozemtsev* and Dmitry Nekrasov prepared by our CASE center. In it, they analyze why “Putinomics” has survived and even shown growth, despite the sanctions war, unprecedented in world history, declared by almost the entire developed world, and what will happen to it next. In particular, the report dispels all these stupid myths:
Russian oil can be replaced on world markets and deprive Putin of money
IN FACT: Russia’s involvement in these markets is such that it is impossible to do so without causing a prohibitive shock to the global economy. Not to mention the fact that the West does not have the influence to force India and China not to buy from Russia everything that the West has stopped buying. By the way, raw materials and energy resources processed there also go to the West, which has lost much more than Russia.
The war budget will soon run out.
IN FACT: The share of defense spending in the 2025 budget is 6.5% of GDP; This is far less than many countries in the last century spent for decades as they developed. But the budget deficit and public debt as a percentage of GDP remain lower than in most developed countries. At this rate, Putin can finance the war for a long time.
The Russians will quickly become poorer and protest about it.
IN FACT: Due to the departure of workers from the labor market (to war and emigration) and the competition of the army + military-industrial complex with other sectors for the remaining workers, wages are growing at a rate that is even faster than the current high Russian inflation. For the first time in the thousand-year history of Russia, our state has problems with people, but not with money. Before it was always the other way around.
PS: Oh yes, this is no longer from our report, but Ekaterina Shulman* In all currents remember that in dictatorships people do not begin to protest en masse due to impoverishment. See: Third Reich-1944/45.
The ruble will collapse.
IN FACT: In the first weeks of the war, it actually collapsed one and a half times. Then, however, his strength more than doubled. But eventually, by the end of the first year of the war, it had fallen back to levels not much lower than before the war began, and has since stabilized in this range.
Unemployment in Russia will increase.
IN FACT: Russia has a shortage of labor resources. In any country at war, unemployment always decreases: learn from history!
Without Western goods and technologies – from Ikea, McDonald’s, Netflix and Gucci to Microsoft and Boeing – the Russian economy will stagnate.
IN FACT: Russia, unlike the USSR, has a market economy. Russian companies very quickly found a way to deliver the necessary goods through third countries.
PS It is important to know this unpleasant truth, because there can be no effective treatment if the diagnosis is made incorrectly. The report has already been widely presented in various political institutions in Germany and within a month it will be distributed to the EU and the US. This is important so that those making decisions on sanctions understand:
— the current sanctions model has been exhausted and needs a new design;
— to weaken the Putin regime, it is necessary to focus on the departure of capital and personnel from the Russian Federation, which is incompatible with the decisions taken earlier.
*An individual who performs the functions of a foreign agent.
