The worst forecasts are confirmed for historic hurricane Miltonwhich moves away from the Cancún and Mérida region (Yucatán, Mexico) towards Tampa (Florida, United States) where it will make landfall throughout Wednesday. After passing from Category 5 tropical storm to cyclone in 24 hoursan unprecedented depth for experts, had briefly fallen back to level 4 on Tuesday.
However, and fueled by the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for this time of year, Milton regained its momentum and reached Category 5 again. The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified it as “extremely dangerous” and the evacuation of more than a million people was ordered in the Tampa Bay area, in a state already affected by the passage of hurricane Hélène two weeks ago.
Why does it accumulate so much energy?
Tropical storms become hurricanes extracting energy from warm ocean currentswhich explains why the Gulf of Mexico is one of its main “incubators”. The warmer the waters, the more “fuel” there is to fuel the potentially destructive effects of these phenomena, as meteorologist Francisco Martín León explains.
However, climate change has caused sea waters to reach record temperatures in recent years, Oceans absorb 90% of greenhouse gas emissions. Added to this are the successive stages of global temperature: 2024 could become the hottest year in history, shifting the stages of 2023 and 2022.
According to the agency Reutersthe European Union’s Copernicus service on climate change estimates that warming over the past twelve months has exceeded the 1.62ºC above pre-industrial levels. This constitutes a violation of the Paris Agreement, which sets the limit at 1.5°C.
How strong are you? And its intensity?
THE force of a hurricane is measured by the sustained wind speed who accompanies him. Category 1 starts at 120 km/h, while category 5 is declared when they reach more than 250 km/has happens with Milton. THE intensity It is measured by the speed at which the winds accelerate, and it is measured in each stretch over 50 km/h that increases in 24 hours.
Milton has already become the third hurricane of Atlantic history in terms of speed of intensification, moving from the previous hurricane category – tropical storm – to a maximum hurricane category in a single day. A study published in 2023 in Scientific reports pointed out that were doubled the chances of a hurricane moving from category 1 to category 3 in 36 hours, compared to the period 1971-1990.
The waters of the Gulf of Mexico have broken historic records in recent weeks in store at 32ºC despite the time of year. Researcher Andra Garner of Rowan University in New Jersey told Reuters that the speed of Milton’s intensification is in the order of 99% percentile of all the maximums ever observed in the Atlantic. “Seeing him get stronger in real time has been surprising“, he admitted.
Why is rapid escalation dangerous?
Mainly because if it happens near the coast, it tends to catch locals off guard before they can prepare. This is what happened last year on the Pacific coast of Mexico with the Cyclone Otiswhich also reached category 5 hours before arriving in Acapulco. The fastest in history was Wilma, who reached Yucatán in 2005, followed by Félix in 2007.
Fortunately, Milton moved deeper into the Caribbean and allowed evacuation to move forward, but the problem is that Florida has yet to recover from the impact of Helene, which left debris on traffic routes and caused fuel and energy shortages. The succession of more frequent hurricanes that intensify more quickly increases its destructive potential.
Why does it arouse so much fear among the population?
Milton’s other major anomaly is its trajectory: it will impact the west coast of Florida, a region that It has not been affected by hurricanes for 100 years. It is a sea level area surrounded by lagoons, making it very vulnerable to flooding. And unlike the East Coast, which is usually better prepared for extreme events, it doesn’t have as many levees or fixed barriers.
In 1921, the hurricane that struck the city of Tampa was a category 3 hurricane, with winds of 120 km/h, and caused eight deaths. Now, more than 450 mm of rain in flash floodswhich can quickly flood neighborhoods, metros and Tampa Bay islands. When it comes to being one of the most populated areas of Florida, property losses are estimated to be “in the billions of dollars”.
