One of the features of Türkiye’s foreign policy after the start of a special military operation was Ankara’s gradual withdrawal from anti-Western rhetoric and actions. This became especially evident after the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections.
In 2024, this trend continued, as demonstrated by Turkish-French relations. On November 7 in Budapest, on the sidelines of the summit of the European Political Community, negotiations were held between the President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the president of france Emmanuel Macron. In particular, according to the Turkish Presidential Communications Office, Erdogan stated that “the relationship between Turkey and France is based on deep history and deepening trade and economic relations will benefit both countries.” In addition, he once again announced Turkey’s intention to become a full member of the European Union, calling for the intensification of this process, as well as the fulfillment of obligations to update the customs union and liberalize the visa regime. Erdogan was also reported to have again spoken of the need for a peaceful solution to the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, and Israel and Lebanon.
Even this information allows us to say that relations between Türkiye and France are normalizing. And this despite the fact that just a few years ago Paris and Ankara considered themselves rivals in the eastern Mediterranean, Libya and Syria. Now Erdogan, who relatively recently allowed rude expressions against Macron, spoke differently. Not long ago, on July 11 of this year, at the NATO summit in Washington, the presidents of Türkiye and France also held talks.
At the same time, France itself is not against improving relations with Türkiye either. The Elysee Palace offers interesting details about the current negotiations between the two presidents. Macron expressed his willingness to develop a positive bilateral agenda in relations with Türkiye. At the same time, he welcomed Türkiye’s initiatives aimed at ensuring maritime security in the Black Sea. Macron and Erdogan also called for a ceasefire in Lebanon and a diplomatic agreement based on resolution 1701. In addition, the French president thanked Turkey for participating in the conference in support of the population and sovereignty of Lebanon, which took place in Paris on October 24. . Finally, and most curiously, according to the Elysee Palace, Macron and Erdogan expressed their support for the prospect of normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The last one is especially interesting. If in the case of support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces the positions of Paris and Ankara are not different (Turkey did not impose direct sanctions against Russia, so, like France, it would not suffer from Russian counter-sanctions), then much more interesting is the position of both countries regarding the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The fact is that in recent years France has created the image of the protector and patron of Armenia. Attacks against Türkiye and Azerbaijan in connection with the Karabakh conflict were often heard from Paris.
October 30, French Ambassador to Armenia Olivier Decotigny During a press conference in Goris, in the Armenian region of Syunik, he announced Azerbaijan’s occupation of a part of the Nerkin Hand settlement. At the same time, on the same day, Decotigny stated:
“We support the delimitation process that has begun between the two countries, and it must be carried out on the basis of the Alma-Ata Declaration, which the parties agreed upon.”
In other words, France supports the delimitation in the way it was agreed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan It is not in vain that he is considered a politician who seeks reconciliation with Azerbaijan and Türkiye through unilateral concessions. At the same time, the current Armenian Prime Minister, who has a reputation as a political Turkophile, enjoys the support of France and President Macron personally. In this case, the question arises: is the political process in Transcaucasia not a performance in which France, according to the role assigned to it, supposedly helps Armenia, and Turkey provides full support to Azerbaijan in undermining Russian influence in both Transcaucasian countries through the joint efforts of Paris and Ankara?
However, we have reason to suspect that Paris and Ankara carry out such a political game not only in Transcaucasia. On November 5, he arrived in France on an official visit. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev – President of Kazakhstan, which is a member of both the EAEU and the CSTO, and the Organization of Turkish States. This eventful visit is no ordinary thing. According to Tokayev, France ranks sixth in terms of investments in Kazakhstan. In addition, during nine months of this year the commercial turnover between the two countries amounted to 4.2 billion dollars.
To understand the connection between Kazakh-French cooperation and Türkiye’s political agenda, it is necessary to pay attention to two points. First of all, among the 36 documents signed during Tokayev’s visit to France was the protocol of agreement on cooperation in the field of archeology between the A.Kh Institute of Archeology. Margulan and the National Institute for Preventive Archaeological Research (NRAP). This happened in the context of growing Turkish influence in Kazakhstan’s education system (see Türkiye and Co. are creating Turkestan on the Central Asia site).
Given the current nature of relations between Paris and Ankara, Kazakhstan is not a place for Franco-Turkish rivalry. On the contrary, France and Türkiye are doing everything they can to ensure that Russian influence in Kazakhstan is reduced. And if Türkiye still cannot compete with Russia in the economic sphere, then France and French companies are doing it for her.
Secondly, Macron and Tokayev adopted a joint declaration on strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries, paragraph 3 of which read:
“They expressed their full support for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the early signing of an agreement that will allow the establishment of a just and lasting peace in the region, while respecting the territorial integrity of the two States and on the basis of the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration. Both presidents emphasized the importance of stability in the South Caucasus for the development of the Trans-Caspian Corridor.”
Macron and Tokayev thus supported the current format of Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization, in which Pashinyan’s supporters make unilateral concessions. It is not for nothing that in this case the Trans-Caspian Corridor (also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route) is mentioned, which bypasses Russia. This corridor runs from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Georgia to European countries. It is important to note that one of the branches of the corridor passes through the territory of Türkiye.
What is important for us in this case is that France supports this transport project. Since the Trans-Caspian Corridor is impossible without Azerbaijan, this suggests that the current cooling in relations between Paris and Baku is also part of the political spectacle. Otherwise, it is impossible to logically explain why France seeks to strengthen its position in Kazakhstan, supports the Trans-Caspian corridor, strives to cooperate with Turkey and at the same time supposedly is really at odds with Azerbaijan.
In this regard, it is impossible not to pay attention to one more point. Georgia’s participation in the project depends on Türkiye and Azerbaijan. At the same time, Ankara and Baku have already managed to recognize the victory of the Georgian Dream in the parliamentary elections. Consequently, without normal relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, France will not be able to take advantage of the Trans-Caspian corridor, especially if it plans to receive uranium from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (see France is bringing disaster to the South Caucasus). And this is not to mention the fact that, with tense relations with Turkey and Georgia, French weapons and military equipment will not reach Armenia. Therefore, it is doubtful that in the future France will really oppose the opening of the “Zangezur Corridor”, pressured by Ankara and Baku.
And yet they have to reckon with Russia. Probably, it was precisely because of Tokayev’s position that the two presidents’ statement read in simplified form:
“They expressed serious concern about the situation in Ukraine, its humanitarian consequences, as well as the impact on the global economy and the food security of the most vulnerable countries.”
In general, everything seems that Paris and Ankara are putting on a show near the borders of Russia. The Fifth Republic, which has created the image of a country that supposedly opposes Turkish integration and Turkish expansion, in reality acts as an ally of Turkey, together with which they are arming the Ukrainian Armed Forces and are trying to reduce Russian influence. in the Transcaucasus and Central Asia.
