Last June, a few days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, The World attributed to Emmanuel Macron a phrase spoken during a private conversation with a businessman at the Elysée Palace. As the newspaper reveals, the French president said that with the early elections, “he had thrown a grenade without a ring at the feet of the political parties; now let’s see how they get out of it.”
In the following days, Éric Ciotti, president of the Republicans (right), confirmed Macron’s predictions by announcing an electoral alliance with the far-right Marine Le Pen, against the opinion of the majority of his colleagues, who voted for his expulsion. On the left, however, the four main parties (Insoumise France, Socialist Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts and Communist Party) agreed in a few days that they would participate together in the legislative elections within the New Popular Front (NFP).
Against all odds, the NFP managed to be the force with the most seats in the Assembly (193, against 166 for the centrist coalition and 146 for the extreme right). With the largest group of seats in the new Assembly, the progressive parties agreed, after several weeks of negotiations, and nominated the state economist, Lucie Castets, as candidate for the post of Prime Minister. The left-wing coalition thus managed to leave behind days of tensions and internal differences to reach a consensus and defend, all together, the name of Castets.
But Macron rejected the NFP proposal from the start, ultimately opting for conservative Michel Barnier. Since then, progressive forces have continued to denounce the “denial of democracy” that the French president’s decision represents and are trying to organize a common response, even if they differ on the tone and modalities.
This weekend, during the Fête de l’Humanité –conferences organized each year by the newspaper Humanity and which represent a major meeting of politicians and left-wing activists – the four main representatives of the parties, the socialist Olivier Faure, the ecologist Marine Tondelier, the rebellious Manuel Bompard and the communist Fabien Roussel have publicly defended the need to preserve the unity of the NFP, as a parliamentary force and as a vehicle for leading the demonstrations.
First demonstrations
A few weeks ago, France Insoumise called – without consulting its partners – to protest against “Emmanuel Macron’s denial of democracy”. And on Saturday, the founder of the left-wing party, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, declared his support for the new day of action planned for September 21 against a “Macron-Barnier government”, initially called by student, environmentalist and feminist associations and organizations.
The Socialists did not participate in the first one, preferring to concentrate on protests coordinated with the unions, which have planned large demonstrations on October 1. Nor did Lucie Castets, who announced that she would only participate in demonstrations involving the four forces of the NFP.
Parliamentary response
In addition to the street, another stage of opposition to the new government will take place in Parliament. This Tuesday, the Bureau of the National Assembly, where left-wing deputies are in the majority, had to decide on the admission to the processing of the motion of impeachment of Emmanuel Macron, presented by France Insoumise.
Although the other NFP parties – notably the Socialist Party – have publicly expressed their doubts about the viability and legal basis of this procedure, they all voted in favour of the proposal debated in the Assembly. However, many socialists say that, if necessary, they will vote against it.
The differences in substance and form between France Insumisa and the Socialist Party have been visible at different stages since the creation of the NFP, to the point that, among the socialists, a significant part of the party advocates a break with the insumisos and openly criticizes the general secretary of the party, Olivier Faure, who is in favor of maintaining the unity of the left – he was one of the main promoters of the NFP and its predecessor the NUPES.
But so far, the need to maintain a united front prevails. “PS activists tend to be very distant from certain positions and actions of the rebels,” Gilles Candar, a historian and specialist in the French left, explains to elDiario.es. “The alliance is controversial and unpopular, and this is often the case on the LFI side. But the question is: do they really have a choice? Even the most hostile currents to LFI within the Socialist Party will have to form alliances in the face of the upcoming municipal and local elections. These days, it is rare to be able to win alone. And in electoral reality, it is easier to form a left-wing bloc than a center-left alliance that does not excite the electorate likely to vote for the Socialist Party.”
The Cazeneuve option
While Macron does not seem to have considered the Castets option, he has nevertheless invited the socialist Bernard Cazeneuve to the Elysée Palace on several occasions. The reasons for the sidelining of François Hollande’s former Prime Minister, as well as Macron’s sincerity in exploring the Cazeneuve option at the head of the government, are debated.
Some socialists accuse the PS leadership, particularly the secretary general, of sabotaging Cazeneuve’s options. “We could have had a left-wing prime minister, in line with the French vote. There was a name, that of Bernard Cazeneuve, and it was my own party that prevented his nomination,” declared Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, reluctant to continue the alliance with La France Insoumise.
In reality, Cazeneuve is part of the sector most hostile to any alliance with those of Mélenchon and his nomination would have meant the breakup of the New Popular Front. “There are strong tensions for a Socialist Party that sees the good results obtained within the left alliance but also lets itself be tempted by the Macronists, many of whom come from its ranks”, analyzes Gilles Candar. “A government led by Bertrand Cazeneuve would have been based on an alliance between socialists and centrists. A very fragile perspective, both for him and for the two camps: the socialists divided, the Macronists also in the process of recomposition.”
Presidential elections on the horizon
Against the backdrop of this sequence of government formation, several candidates are beginning to position themselves for the next presidential elections. After his results in 2017 and 2022, Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears as the dominant candidate on the left and the first debates are appearing on the advisability or not of a unity candidacy.
“Mélenchon’s strength also lies in the weakness of his partners,” believes Gilles Candar. “For the moment, no candidate stands out, neither in the PS, nor among the ecologists nor around the parties (Glucksmann, Hamon, Autain, Ruffin, etc.). Could Lucie Castets be a possibility? That remains to be seen.
In recent days, the rivalry between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and François Ruffin, a former member of LFI who recently left the party and now wants to offer an alternative to the rebellious leader of the far left of the French political landscape, has increased in intensity.
To this end, Ruffin affirms his “profound disagreements” with Mélenchon and accuses the leader of La France Insoumise of abandoning the rural electorate to concentrate on the mobilization of young people on the outskirts of cities, as well as of disdaining voters in certain territories – notably in the North of France – where the extreme right has regularly prevailed over the last decade.
