Donald Trump was one of the main pillars of “Operation Juan Guaidó”, launched in January 2019 to overthrow Nicolás Maduro. This operation failed a few months later with an attempted military uprising supported by the tycoon.
The new Trump administration will now have to choose between launching a new attempt to overthrow Maduro or adopting a more pragmatic policy that allows American companies to continue exploiting Venezuelan oil and attempts to stop the migratory exodus by mitigating the effect of sanctions on the civilian population. .
During his previous term, Trump had already received communications and requests from members of the government and American oil businessmen about the consequences of his policy and his bet on pragmatism and negotiation. This week, the Wall Street Journal published reports claiming that oil businessmen were once again pressuring Trump to change the direction of his Venezuela policy during this second term.
Chevron, for example, plays a fundamental role in the Venezuelan economy. The U.S. oil company generates about 20% of national crude exports and 31% of all government oil revenues, according to Asdrúbal Oliveros, president of Venezuelan financial consulting firm Ecoanalítico, in statements to the Wall Street Journal.
President Maduro has been open to resuming relations between the two: “In his first administration, re-elected President Donald Trump, things did not go well for us. “It’s a new start, so we can bet on win-win,” he said shortly after the US elections.
“Trump’s policy on Venezuela can go in two directions: the first is the continuation of the harsh regime change policies that he applied during his first term and the second is the search for a negotiated agreement with the objective of reduce migration. win more oil,” Michael Paarlberg, former Bernie Sanders adviser on Latin America and associate researcher at the progressive think tank Institute for Policy Studies, told elDiario.es.
“It makes sense, given the appointments he has made, such as National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to expect a hard line. “They are supposed to strengthen sanctions,” Anna Ayuso, senior researcher at the CIDOB think tank specializing in Latin America, tells elDiario.es. Rubio was one of the main promoters of Operation Guaidó in 2019. The senator met with Trump just a day before Guaidó’s self-proclamation and said: “Tomorrow will be a very good day for democracy and constitutional order in Venezuela.
“On the other hand, oil companies have a lot of influence with Trump and, in this sense, they may seek to buy time to maintain their activities. There will be a balance between a tough stance and the realistic pragmatism that Trump also partly possesses. Another thing is Cuba and Nicaragua, where [la política de confrontación] “It’s free,” adds Ayuso. “The rhetoric will be harsh, but we will have to see how it translates,” he concludes.
Sanctions imposed by Trump during his first term suffocated the Venezuelan economy, which suffered a contraction of 19.7%, 27.7% and 30% in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. However, when Biden eased the sanctions in 2022, the Venezuelan economy grew by 6%. Economists Jeffrey Sachs and Mark Weisbrot called this series of sanctions “unlawful collective punishment against the civilian population.” “Sanctions have reduced the population’s caloric intake, increased illness and mortality (of adults and children), and displaced millions of Venezuelans who fled the country due to the deepening economic depression and hyperinflation,” they wrote.
“Under the first Trump administration, it was unthinkable to imagine a negotiated agreement. However, the failure of the maximum pressure strategy to oust Maduro opened more political space, including within the Trump administration, to consider negotiation,” says Paarlberg.
Biden changed strategy and eased sanctions in exchange for Maduro allowing free and fair elections in 2024 under what is known as the Barbados Accord. Despite what was signed, the US government considered Maduro to be in breach of his commitments – he disqualified the main opposition candidate, María Corina Machado – and reimposed many of these sanctions in April 2024. However, a exception allows the government to decide whether a company can continue to operate in the country, as is currently the case with Chevron.
After the controversial 2024 elections in which Venezuela’s National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner despite doubts about the count, criticism from election observers and a lack of transparency in the minutes, Chevron again contacted the White House on Biden’s topic, saying it was crucial that they continue to allow the oil company to work in the South American country – in part to combat the presence of geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia.
“During the Trump administration, I was special representative for Venezuela at the State Department. Chevron also put pressure on us at that time; in fact, their CEO met with us three times in 2019 and 2020, if I remember correctly. Chevron made the same arguments and we rejected them as unpersuasive. Producing more in Venezuela under the Maduro regime could serve Chevron’s interests, but not those of the United States,” Elliot Abrams wrote a few weeks ago in the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Abrams, convicted in 1991 for the Iran-Contra affair, in which the United States illegally sold weapons to Iran and used the money to finance guerrillas fighting the Sandinista government in Nicaragua, now advocates the reinstatement of all sanctions.
“Although the inauguration of Trump and Maduro will take place practically at the same time, when the US president takes office the Venezuelan will already be president, which favors Maduro because there will be no immediate reaction. [del Gobierno Trump]“, says Ayuso. Operation Guaidó was launched during the previous inauguration of the Venezuelan president, in power since 2013.
Domestically, Trump has promised to carry out the largest expulsion of migrants in history. When he imposed new sanctions on Venezuela starting in 2017, members of his government warned that it could cause the economy to collapse and trigger an exodus of millions of people.
The Venezuelan government believes that by easing oil supplies and accepting deportation flights – which has already become a negotiating tool with Biden – Maduro will manage to drag Trump towards a more pragmatic position, Wall Street reported. Journal of sources close to the government. . Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have left the country and around 700,000 have headed to the United States.
Ayuso recalls that “the increase in the Latin American vote for Trump came in part from these sectors and if Trump does not respond, there could be a new shift in the vote.” “All this encourages Trump to toughen his position a little towards Venezuela. »
However, Paarlberg considers that the change in the Latino vote precisely opens the door to a negotiation with the Maduro government. “Florida is no longer a key state, but a Republican state, and Trump is not afraid of losing it,” which allows him to soften his previous policy, he says.
