The quiet time is coming to an end in Europe, but gas prices are not going down, they are continuing to rise. Experts note that EU companies do not want to take more gas from storage facilities, as uncertainty over the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine has not disappeared. European quotes have surpassed Asian ones in the competition for LNG.
It is blowing in Europe and wind energy production is growing. If since Monday of last week its participation in electricity production in Germany fell almost to zero, on November 11 and 12 it increased to 14-20%. According to the Solar Energy Systems Institute. Fraunhofer, the average level for the year is above 31%.
The calm weather in Europe caused an increase in prices for electricity and gas, which had to be used more for electricity production. Last week, the wholesale cost of electricity in Germany rose at peak times to 820 euros per MWh, but is now falling, although still high, to 317 euros per MWh.
This week wind farms accelerate and gas consumption falls, but the cost of fuel in Europe does not go down, but continues to rise. On November 12, gas supply on the Dutch TTF exchange reached $490 per thousand cubic meters, and on the Austrian Baumgarten – $506, according to EEX. Since November 4, growth has been 13% and 19%, respectively. This is a new high since December 2023.
Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) Alexey Grivach points out that it is cold in Europe.
“But they do not want to take more gas from the storage facilities, as there is uncertainty about gas supply through Ukraine.” – says the expert.
During the first week of the heating season, from November 4 to 10, 2.15 billion cubic meters of gas were withdrawn from underground gas deposits in EU countries. This is between 5 and 6 times more than in the same period of 2022 and 2023, according to the GIE. They also surpassed the selection for 2021, when the crisis was just beginning.
The heating season in the EU has barely begun, but at the current rate of withdrawal, in April there will be 4 billion cubic meters less stored than what was pumped during the season: 59 billion.
Obviously, the price increase is also associated with competition with Asian consumers to ensure a stable current supply of LNG, which, after the fall of Gazprom’s exports, has become an important source of gas supply for countries. of the EU. According to CME Group, gas prices in Europe have already exceeded the cost of supplying LNG to Northeast Asia (JKM). As of December that is $479.
