As the parliamentary elections to be held in Georgia on October 26 approach, the Western Russia trend, which divides the country into two different positions and has become serious enough to bring the processes to the stage of confrontation, has entered its highest stage. Especially, the contradictions between the presidency and the government have taken this tension to the maximum. Thus, although President Salomé Zurabishvili is in favor of integration into the European Union, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze is interested in the development of relations with Russia. The most negative scenario for Georgia and the region is civil conflict and the process of destruction. Salome Zurabishvili already plans to announce the technical government “to be established during the transition period” before the parliamentary elections, and plans to present the technical government in the direction of “Georgia’s choice should be Europe.” In this context, the largest demonstration is expected to be held in the capital, Tbilisi, and on October 20 “Georgia chooses the European Union!” action is planned.
Oku.Az He clarified the issue with local and foreign experts.
Former Minister of Education and Science of Georgia, director of the International School of Caucasian Studies at Iliya State University Giya Nodia described the situation before the parliamentary elections as uncertain:
“Because it is not known who will win the election. Public opinion polls, which I consider more reliable, show that the ruling Georgian Dream Party has around 30 percent support, which may not be enough to win in a fully proportional system “.
“On the opposition front there are four main political blocs. Each of them, according to these polls, plans to overcome the 5 percent barrier and then unite to form a coalition government. This is a completely realistic option. But on the other hand On the other hand, the ruling party does not consider the possibility of defeat and according to a survey conducted by several television channels, 60 percent of the country’s population supports the Georgian dream.
He added that the expectations of the population differ from each other:
“It seems to me that the opposition camp, which dominates at least in the capital, is now more optimistic. But no one can say with certainty what will happen now and therefore the whole country is waiting for October 26.”
Russian political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko He also believes that in Georgia there is a struggle between the political elites:
“On the one hand, a part of the elite wants to integrate into global structures through various organizations, which are mediators between Georgia and the European Union, Georgia and NATO, Georgia and the United States, etc. On the other hand, the current government “is trying to protect moral rules and norms. “That’s why the government is under pressure to cancel LGBT activities, even if it is not relevant, at least it is the main reason to preserve the current situation of Georgia.”
“You can say that what is happening now is the awakening of the Georgian elite. If they were honest, most of them would admit that the events of 2008 were organized to test Russia. Therefore, statements are made that Saakashvili is to blame for these events,” the political scientist emphasized.
According to their conclusion, the majority of Georgians regret the serious deterioration of relations with the Russian Federation:
“Because Georgia’s main economic partner is Russia. Georgian wine, agricultural products, fruits, etc. are not needed by anyone in the European Union or other regions. But Russia needs them. In addition, they respect the Georgian diaspora in Russia. For example, recently the Federal Government of Russia The President of the National-Cultural Autonomy of Georgia, David Tsetskhladze, joined the Council on International Relations under the presidency of the Russian Federation. Therefore, in this situation, Georgia and its elites, in. “At least those who try to protect independence and sovereignty should understand that it is better for them to live in an environment of partnership with Russia.”
political commentator Khayal Bashirov considers that there was a high possibility of protests in Georgia on the eve of and after the parliamentary elections:
“According to polls conducted in Georgia, there is already a majority of votes in society indicating that the ruling Georgian Dream Party will win the elections. This is due to the adoption of the bills on “Transparency of foreign influence” and ” Registration of Foreign Agents”, as well as those launched as part of the fight against LGBT concerns the forces mobilized against Georgia during the measures. Of course, those forces will use their capabilities to the maximum. This election, in fact, will determine the question of what path Georgia will choose.”
“In 2003, the “Pink Revolution” took place in Georgia and, after the overthrow of President Eduard Shevardnadze and the coming to power of Mikheil Saakashvili, a pro-Western policy began to be implemented in Georgia. For 20 years, Georgia took quite a serious steps towards the West, and after this period, Georgia’s candidacy for membership in the European Union was approved. However, this step achieved by Georgia was canceled in one day. This was the adoption of the “foreign agents” law. ” in Georgia. “This law was an excuse and once again brought out the cracks in relationships. In this sense, I think that relations between the parties in Georgia will become more tense and both Russia and the West will show their positions,” the commentator said.
According to him, Russia is trying not to seize Western Georgia:
“It is important that Moscow does not lose sight of Georgia, especially on the eve of Armenia’s departure from Russia’s sphere of influence as a South Caucasus state. In this sense, we will clearly observe the tension. Because we saw the participation of foreign diplomats and the European deputies during the adoption of the law “on foreign agents” and even at the demonstrations, this means, in fact, interfering in the internal affairs of the Georgian state. In other words, they tried with all their might to prevent the adoption of the law. law. this law.”
“In any case, both Russia and the current Georgian government are determined to develop relations. Western states will also try to weaken the current government and form a government close to them, or force the current government to move closer to them. Now, for Of course, the realization of the second option is not very likely. In any case, we will see the fight both on the political stage and in the squares.”
Merahim Nasib
