There is no return. Германия только что отрицала свою ДНК финансовой экономии, задуманную во время гиперинфляции межвоенного периода, консолидированной на протяжении всей холодной войны в соответствии с руководящим принципом демилитаризации, без оперативной армии, по строгому желанию как союзников, так и из -за ее наружных врагов и, которые навязывают его самый мощный статус экономики в ЕС, его общественные партнеры во время общинного кругового trips. Arounded after the credit collapse of 2008, and it was aggravated, with the financial salvations of Greece – extreme urgency – to Portugal, Ireland and Spain from 2011 and 2012, and the euro on the operating table, and this was supposed to launch another rescuer to Italy.
Adjustments of the former Minister of Foreign Minister Angels Merkel, larvae, along with pure EU taxpayers as the Netherlands, and who won the playful criticism of newspapers, such as Financial times Against the pigs of southern Europe, incapable of – they said that they then – in order to put their public accounts in order, now seem to be the remnants of the distant past. A AusticideAs described in saved societies – they speak bad languages - for the money of Northern Europe.
Because Berlin passed the page in his recent economic history. At the end of June, the Minister of Finance of the updated Great Coalition of Democratists (CDU/CSU) and Social Democrats SPD, Lars Klingbeil, admitted that the plan for the conclusion of Germany from economic paralysis, which was destroyed on the Triennik, would be responsible for the future duty. Or, in other words: half a billion euros that will require the return of lost magnificence to once German industry in order to transfer the country with a check equivalent to 5% of GDP, which cleans $ 5 billion for the work and grace of the new NATO agreement – and one who did not oblige Fredrich’s foreign infrastructure with the thoughtful German and competitiveness.
In some way, it still cannot be necessary, the manner of Klingbeal, Vice -Kantler and the new leader of the SPD put into Liza a reputation as the third global GDP. Analysts seem to choose a bold scenario for Germany to interpret that it is time to abandon the fact that an excess of budget rigor and financial corsets. Even some talk about the first step so that they finally reveal and open to launch Eurobons as a way to support great geostrategic projects that Mario Draghi and Enriko Letta, former Italian prime ministers who were responsible for profile, who should take the EU to compete with the USA and China in international markets.
Others, the most liberals, say about the temptation that the German government is included in the excessive debt orgy and emphasizes the risks associated with the lying agenda of the day of excessive gestures in connection with the future income. If the unforeseen deviation is not mediated, the extensive Klingbeil plan will lead to an increase in federal investments by two -thirds before the end of 2026, it expects 2029, that German contributions to the NATO treasury were marked in the Atlantic Alliance before it puts forward 850 mm euros, 850 million euros to 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 – 850 Millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions of millions. Fiscal expenses.
Germany will be outside the European convergence
Even Bundesbank warns that this horizon will push the hole more than 3% of GDP and the debt above 60% of GDP will be bought. That is, German Orthodoxy, a credit arm, will first miss the two main criteria for convergence at the same time.
The figure is still symbolic. This is similar to the cost of the next generation, which launched a European reconstruction after the Great Pandemia, the amount that dragases resulted in to meet the annual needs of industrial reconstruction in the domestic market and payment, which will be required according to analysts Bloomberg IntelligenceCreate a European army.
Economist He talks about the three moves that made this journey from Germany from his budget restrictions. Firstly, the obsessed beliefs of the Mercnes that the Bundesmover should be militarized because Russia will be able to attack the territory of NATO in 2029. Secondly, a recent constitutional modification that exempts the costs of defending its hard “debt brake”, and the trick never saw that the infrastructure program that should be intended, which should be accumulated in the stimulation that should be entered, which should be accumulated in stimulation. Finally, the fact that after decades of rigid savings Berlin is in a state of absorption of large doses of debt, representing a record of even less than 60% of GDP. Although this affected him at the end of 2024.
All this prompted the great coalition of the Mercke to configure the alternative agenda of the reformist agenda in which they would undoubtedly develop any of their predecessors, but who protect their economic consultants who predict the take -off, soft, the economy in 2026, for the stimulus of expenses and public investments. The word of the Council of Experts, which has always advised foreign ministers and predicts that the European economic patient will still release a flat encephalogram this year. Or, at best, a rebound of 4 tenths, says Monica Schnitser, her president.
The head of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, does not exclude another recession, as in 2023 and 2024 from the tariff for the Trump administration, which indicates neuralgic sectors, such as automobile and external production processing Made in GermanyQuestionnaires
Neither the advisory council, nor the monetary power have questioned the savings. They recommend only Berlin to properly manage the means. Also in German power circles, they changed the mentality. Although the risks of this new strategy become a clear ban on the debt brake. Because the constitutional escape only covers specific objects related to the reserve and specific projects of the infrastructure program. Strictness continues to exist for most federal accounts that will create a deficit of 144,000 million euros in the period from 2027 to 2029. The imbalance, which Klingbeil and Robin Winkler, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank, trust that it can be provided with more dynamism.
Of course, it seems that in exchange for the creation of a reformist agenda, which puts the labor market with a growing passive population from a social aging or tax model, which leaves a small profit to reduce tax pressure.
Berlin needs an aggressive reform program
Other authors emphasize that German militarization will add energy to GDP. In addition, they are produced in the context of strategic calm, given that several neighbors such as Denmark or Sweden, as well as Poland or Baltika -, among others, raised their checks between 3% to 5% this year or in the fact that weapons, such as KND or Thales, are two of those who won from the stock market, especially in the region, throughout all throughout all, throughout the course of development, within the framework of development, within the framework of development, within the framework of the development. Throughout all interested, in the field of development, especially having worked, and throughout all the necessary, as well as for development. Ukraine, ”says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, an analyst at the Institute of Bruges. At low prices and in real fire conditions, the nuances.
Sander Bordar, the chief economist of the European Reform Center (CER), criticizes the “hidden threat of the federal government, which should transform the industry and economy with huge investment deployments in defense and infrastructure”. Germany – Matiza – chose a leader, but her growth model is still faced with a disaster, and Merets always had “too impulsive” behavior. Bordeir declares himself moderately optimistic, even in this. “If most of the money, investment and financing fall into the industrial sector to transform energy and transport networks and digitize their economy.” First of all, because Trump’s tariff attack on Europe will have the worst battlefield in Germany.
Armin Steinbach from Bruges attracts attention to another side effect. Without changes in the European financial order, neither Germany nor strategies will be successful. “You need a large budget margin” is another long period of flexibility of stability, which allows Berlin to provide Linder Expenses to comply with the state of universal well -being, outside 0.35% of GDP established by German Vork. “The normative conflict between Brussels and Berlin is still preserved,” he explains. But also with other partners who must make magic so that the square of their accounts, without ignoring their invoices, among the worst commercial war for more than half a century of capital markets in a state of constant volatility.
The fall of an old and barely productive model also requires movements in the European structure. After China shock 2.0 This raised a technological, energy transition and industrial modernization of the Asian giant, also capable of fighting and forming values or logistics chains and sea channels, until Trump was desperate, which did not urge Blaron Managing Chinese trade traffic on four continents. Everything except Oceania.
“This mentality is the one that left the myopia in Germany,” they admit in Bruge, who was still injured, losing the title Exportsist o The world export champion for their blindness with rigid economy and the decay of its industry. “The German model has never encountered such strong pressure,” says his researcher Jeromin Zettelmeyer.
Undoubtedly, the recent request of the EU industry committee T+1 to financial organizations will serve as great help to facilitate loans for automation, AI and digitalization, which eliminate analog processes that generate industrial narrow places in the domestic market and reduce bureaucratic obstacles in the trade union.
