Early Wednesday morning, when the Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections already seemed unanswered, French President Emmanuel Macron decided to call German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The objective was to score a common line on the Franco-German axis and by extension in the European Union: Trump had to be congratulated, but without giving up anything for the independence of Europe. Furthermore, Macron insisted, it was necessary send a public message that defends its own security policy without renouncing historical ties with the United States.
This was not a new idea on the part of the French president. Macron has been asking Europe for months to seek a position of military autonomy regarding its American partner, given the possibility that a Republican victory would end the help Ukraine and force the European Union to defend itself against Russian imperialism.
The High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Joseph Borrell, He also repeatedly emphasized this necessity: if Ukraine loses the war with Russia, Putin will sooner or later attack the Baltic republics and seek to expand his zone of influence to Moldova, Poland and Romania.
Taking into account this Ursula von der LeyeSince he has not yet finished setting up his government commission, it was decisive to give an image of unity and strength. Macron hung up, He posted a tweet congratulating Trump and defending his own foreign policy.…and after a few hours, it exploded another bomb in the face: Olaf Scholz, with whom he had just spoken, ended his government coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP).
He dismissal of its leader, Christian Lindner, as Minister of Finance broke any possibility of continuity of the so-called “traffic light” who has ruled Germany for three years.
Outgoing German Finance Minister Christian Lindner holds his dismissal certificate after receiving it from President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
Reuters
The threat of the far right
It’s not exactly an unexpected decision, even if it came at a more than delicate moment. THE relations between liberals and social democrats have been stagnant for some timewith regular discussions on the spending ceiling. Now Scholz can choose between governing alone, relying solely on the support of the Greens (who also do not seem to be ideal partners at the moment, as frictions are constant) or calling new elections, which the conservative is demanding. UDC, first favorite in the polls.
The problem with the latter solution, which will probably become inevitable, is the political context. Germany has been energy dependent on Russia and militarily dependent on the United States for decades. In other words, the country is facing a period of crisis and renewal which goes beyond what is one-off and which affects strategic sectors. Will the German population have patience for this journey? He recent success of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) in the eastern state of Thuringia suggests otherwise.
In fact, the latest survey for the Bundestag, published this Thursday by Ipsos, gives victory to the CDU, but places the AfD as the second political force of the country, ahead of the PSD and its allies until then. It would be up to the CDU to decide if he reconstitutes a grand coalition, if he opts for a government with the liberals – which Lindner would view very favorably – or, if the figures do not add up, he is forced to conclude a pact with a far right allied with Putin and opposed defending Ukraine against Russian invasion.
Even if ultimately the CDU wants nothing to do with Alice Weidel and Björn Hecke – this is the most likely scenario – the fact that one of Putin’s “proxies” acquires such political importance in a key country for European construction is not a good thing. sign.
Even less, as we said, after Trump’s victory, what Scholz described as “a turning point” in relations between Europe and the United States. Norbert Röttgen, CDU MP and former minister of Angela Merkel, went further: “I fear a radical historical change,” the German politician said as a forecast for the future.
More military industry and more support for Ukraine
In a newspaper interview The SpiegelRöttgen warned of the problems posed by possible loss of American military support. According to the former minister, it is urgent that the countries of the Union undertake a common security spending policy. The two percent demanded by NATO and which only eleven countries respect – one of Trump’s recurring complaints – would no longer be enough. Weapons factories and their production must be increased. Europe potentially has greater industrial capacity than Russia, but we need to put words into action as quickly as possible.
Furthermore, The defense of Ukraine must remain a priority. It is clear that in the coming months, Russian propagandists across Europe will demand that the aid stop and that Ukraine be forced to sign a peace that, in reality, would be a capitulation. Röttgen, however, insists on the need to keep Putin away from the borders of the European Union. “If Ukraine loses, this war will be closer and more dangerous. We must prevent this,” said the CDU politician, without linking his position to that of its leader Friedrich Merz.
Remember that while waiting to know exactly what Trump wants to do with NATO and how far he wants to extend his nuclear umbrella to protect Eastern Europe from the Russian threat, Only two NATO countries have their own arsenals of atomic bombs: United Kingdom and France. This leaves Germany and the rest of European countries in a weak position.this is why Röttgen speaks of a “historic rupture in European security”, especially if populism, both from the extreme right and the extreme left (they tend to coincide in their anti-Americanism and their admiration for Putin) continues to grow across the continent… and the Democrats can’t agree on anything.
