2024 is poised to become one of those years that stock investors and analysts remember over time. The bulls managed to assert themselves forcefully on the bear And they did this regardless of the region in which they invested. And, with only two months until the end of the year, The main stock exchanges in Europe, the United States and Asia maintain a positive annual balancewhich had not happened simultaneously since before the Covid pandemic, in 2019.
On the Old Continent, the community selective EuroStoxx 50, the region’s main index, and the vast majority of national selectives in the area reaped increases of around 10% in the case of the pan-European benchmark and reaching 15% among individuals. protagonists, like the Ibex 35, the German Dax or the Italian Mib. The only exception is that of the French CAC, which was stable over the year and during certain sessions with a negative annual balance weighed down by the poor performance of luxury companies during the year, which weighed heavily on the French index.
On Wall Street, the singing voice In this sense, it is dominated by the Nasdaq, which has appreciated by almost 25% since January and which, since the September lows, has found support in the monetary policy decisions announced by the Fed and in the predictions derived from its actions, they emphasize. . to a lower fall in the price of silver than initially expected.
For its part, in Asia, the recent announcement of the consumer support and economic recovery plan by the People’s Bank of China (PBPC), favored the meteoric rebound of Chinese stock marketswhich, although tempered by the consolidation of recent weeks, has left the annual balance of the Hang Seng and Shenzhen stock markets above 20%.
Additionally, these increases would occur if confirmed in an even year, giving case has THE curse who has chased the bulls in recent years. And we must not forget that the delicate epidemiological situation affected the markets in 2020 and 2022, a year in which the main central banks also began to undertake their historic rate increases and the war in Ukraine began, which affected the stock markets so much because of their influence on the general rise in prices.
How far can the bags go?
Faced with this panorama, analysts only take an overview of the world stock markets close to 10% for the next twelve months. Indeed, the index to which experts give the most importance in the consensus of analysts of Bloomberg By 2025, it is the EuroStoxx 50 that we see making the rounds 12%.
However, the spectra of a certain irrational exuberance like that evoked by the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. Several market indicators are starting to suggest a certain overheating of stock markets. The Fear and Greed Index prepared by CNN (Fear and Greed Index) marks levels of “greed”, although it is not at extreme levels.
And State Street’s Institutional Investor Indicators, which provide investors with information on the overall positioning and risk appetite of the portfolios of thousands of institutional investors around the world, follow suit. This index, which anonymously represents billions of dollars in assets, ended September with a rebound in risk-taking.
In favor of bullish continuity, yes, there are statistics. It is not in vain that in the last century in the S&P 500 there were as many as eleven repetitions of three consecutive years of stock market rises (the last, from 2019 to 2021), and now we are in a cycle in which 2024 It would only be the second year on the rise.
