Goodbye Ohio State, Hello Pennsylvania State! In these November 5 elections, the key is the state of Pennsylvaniathe state with the most electoral votes (19) of all Swing States (undecided states or pendulum states). Why is Ohio no longer interested in who will be president of the United States, as it has been in recent years? What has changed? Why is Pennsylvania now the most important state? It is also the key state of the seven undecided states or Swing States (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin).
Ohio has always been the big prize for presidential candidates. Before 2020, it had elected president in every election since 1856 except five times, according to Ohio records. Historical election results. In 2020, Biden was the first president to win without winning Ohio since John F. Kennedy in 1960.. This has always resulted in significant media attention and campaign visits during presidential election cycles.
But 2024 is a different story. Unlike Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan, Democratic Blue Wallthat Trump broke in 2016, Ohio is not the key to these presidential elections, which are held on November 5.
What has changed in Ohio?
Ohio had a mix of populations from the northern and southern United States, making it a small sample of the country. This made it a state battlefield (battlefield). Over time, the state has changed as has the nation. There was a significant migration of African Americans from the South to the North. Many of them ended up in big cities. They increased the African American population in many northern industrial states, such as Ohio. It also experienced different waves of immigration, at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th, from Eastern Europe and Southern Europe. For this reason, Ohio has become an example of what the United States is.
However, in recent years, Democrats have lost ground among working-middle-class voterswho for decades have formed the backbone of the Democratic Party. On the other hand, in 2016 with the arrival of Donald Trump, Ohio voted Republican. He convinced his voters with his concrete messages on economic proposals for the middle class, lower taxes and the imposition of customs duties. In 2020, Ohio again supported Trump in the presidential election, which was won by Joe Biden. In these 2024 elections, Trump is ahead Kamala Harris 7.4 points in the general survey average.
Why is Pennsylvania undecided?
Pennsylvania has always occupied a central place in presidential campaignsbut it was not always considered a contested state. Traditionally it is part of what is considered the Blue Wall (blue wall), color with which Democrats are identified, alongside Wisconsin and Michigan. Instead, in 2016, former President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by breaking the Democratic wall. In 2020, President Joe Biden won this state with just over 1% of voters.
These narrow margins have turned this state into a battlegroundwhich also served as a study for Democratic strategists on why Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania in 2016. Generally, this failure was attributed to poor campaigning. Instead, he followed the Democratic model: winning big cities by a wide margin to take the state, outperforming small towns. But we did not then expect that Trump would succeed, as he did, in massively mobilizing voters in rural areas and small towns. This is why, won Pennsylvania. Ohio, because middle-class voters, the backbone of the Democratic Party, abandoned their candidates for those of the Republican Party, who offer them more concrete and concise economic policies.
