The Congress of Deputies is today a hostile territory for the government. To the already frequent alliances of the right-wing Catalan independence movement with the PP and Vox to form a parliamentary majority of the opposition, this week was added the discouragement of another investiture partner such as the PNV, aligned with the popular in the debate on Venezuela. And also the first warnings of José Luis Ábalos, who withdrew from the voting leadership of the Socialist Group, as he himself had warned that he would do after the internal investigation into the scandal of the “Koldo case” promoted by the Ministry of Transport.
But among all these obstacles, in Moncloa, only the usual thing keeps us awake: the seven votes of the Juntas. And the dialogue between the socialists and Carles Puigdemont, which has not been interrupted at any time during all these months, leads us to conclude that, in the best case scenario, it will still take time for him to return to his party. the path of collaboration with the government.
The heavy digestion of Salvador Illa’s inauguration, the latest measures of the Supreme Court to keep the former president out of the amnesty law and the internal process that Junts is facing in its extraordinary congress in October are burying any glimmer of hope in the policy of negotiation with the Executive. And that is why the presidential team believes that the path to stability approved this Tuesday for the second time in the Council of Ministers will be annulled again when the Congress votes in a few weeks.
“If you want different results, do different things,” Junts spokeswoman Míriam Nogueras told the Finance Minister on Wednesday during the control session, in reference to this upcoming vote on a path to stability that they themselves, with the PP and Vox, fell at the end of July. “Here we are going to vote on how the 40 billion that Europe told them to spend more will be distributed. You have decided to keep 90% of it and what remains for Catalonia does not even reach a hundred million. Do you think that we fought for independence to settle for so little? Nogueras attacked María Jesús Montero.
The fight between the government’s blue bank and one of the investiture partners has not been without tensions on both sides. In her response, the first vice-president directly called on Junts to reconsider its position regarding the path to stability, the process prior to the General State Budgets. “This government is avoiding a reduction of 4.8 billion euros in the autonomous communities and municipalities and you voted against this path. I hope they will reconsider this decision because it is good for Catalonia and for all Spaniards,” he said.
The executive admits privately that hopes for the ability of Junts to reconsider anything are, at present, very slim. However, they warn the opposition to postpone the party to the day when, as expected, the stability objectives will fall definitively. “The PP can forget that we consider the budgets lost. We are going to present them even if it is with the path of last year and we are going to work to advance them”, they emphasize from the department of María Jesús Montero, where they explain that the draft of these accounts that they that the bill will be presented to Parliament even without support is currently being debated within the government between the coalition partners.
Although the scenario of a new budget extension is an option considered by the President of the Government, who has already warned during the Federal Committee of the PSOE that even in this case he would continue the legislature, the Executive opens the door to the aftermath. During the “hot” autumn of the independence movement, the conditions are once again ripe to sit down and negotiate the accounts.
In Ferraz’s contacts with Waterloo, it is in fact put on the table that among the commitments requested from Junts in exchange for the amnesty law was the approval, at least, of some general state budgets that would allow the extension of the mandate. articulated by Pedro Sánchez. Something that was not finally reflected in any newspaper but that is now at the center of conversations between the PSOE and the independentists with the aim of realizing certain accounts even after the deadline. An extension of the budget on January 1 and the approval of new budgets until 2025 is in fact the most optimistic horizon envisaged by the executive.
Because they hope within the government that the passage of months will once again facilitate the détente with the Catalan independence movement, which is facing internal processes that will determine the direction, strategy and leadership after the historic setback represented by the Catalan elections, the first in forty years. years that have not produced an independentist or nationalist majority in Parliament. The viability of the legislative body will actually depend on whether or not this expectation is realized.
The message from Moncloa is clear: the government will continue with or without budgets and with or without a parliamentary majority that supports legislative production. But beyond words, the presidential team is clear that promoting at least some public accounts is essential to keep the legislative power in place.
