The government increases the growth potential of the Spanish economy and increases GDP growth in 2024 by three tenths, up to 2.7%, and two tenths of those planned for 2025 and 2026, where an increase of 2.4% and 2.2% is indicatedrespectively. The economy considers private consumption, employment and investment as the main drivers of the economy in the coming years. “We have a greater contribution from investment, which until now was the most lagging component,” insisted the minister, Carlos Body, who anticipated a recovery in construction, following the expected increase in real estate supply derived from the Executive’s housing policy. The document foresees increases in gross fixed capital formation of 3.3%, 5.8% and 4.9%, between 2024 and 2026.
However, the updated figures include a reduction in expectations for the unemployment rate by 2026, which will be reduced by a tenth less each year than was estimated last July. The new document now estimates that unemployment will fall to 11.2% in 2024, and to 10.3% and 9.7% in the following two years. Despite the correction, the economy It promises to create around 500,000 jobs per year and to exceed 22 million employees by 2025.. The good performance of the labor market will allow private consumption to be revived. Moncloa claims that it will be one of the main drivers of growth, with growth rates of around 2% throughout the period. Those of Carlos Corp will include the revision of the macroeconomic table in the budget plan that he intends to send to Brussels on October 15 and that the European Commission will examine closely to ensure that Spain complies with European rules.
The new update of the figures comes a few hours after the Government confirmed the withdrawal of the stability path from the agenda of the plenary session this Thursday, with the intention of gaining time in the search for an agreement with Junts – anchored in the “no” that allows its future treatment. The roadmap describes a trajectory of reducing the deficit to 2.5% in 2025, 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% a year later, but relaxes the requirements of the LACC, which could lead to a deficit of 0.1% over the next three years. A margin that Carles Puigdemont considers insufficient. He former president She will not consider changing her position until the tax requirements for Catalonia are changed. “Our goal is to open ourselves to dialogue to reach an agreement and be able to travel this path,” said government spokeswoman Pilar Alegría.
The revision of the macroeconomic table is a consequence of the upward revision that the INE published last week over the last three years. The statistics put economic growth at 2.7% in 2023, compared to 2.5% initially. This also increases GDP growth in 2022 and 2021 by four and three tenths, up to 6.2% and 6.7%, respectively. They also have a lot to do with the improvement in forecasts that various organizations have rolled out in cascade in recent months. The latest, the Bank of Spain, which forecasts growth at 2.8% for the year alone.
