The Spanish labor market has an almost alarming problem as a level of unemployment, and this is very related to this: a huge level of rotation of jobs. All 1.3 million employees joined their current work Over the past three months, while another 1.1 million have left their own for the same period. And although the balance comes out, theoretically, positively for creating jobs, these 2.4 million people make up a person of volatility, which continues to pull 10.8% of jobs in Spain, the highest percentage in Europe And the only one that exceeds the two -digitField
Unlike statistics of active flows of the population, that collects entrances and exits From unemployment or unemployment, these data prepared by European statistical management (Eurostat) are aimed at focusing on the short -term volatility of employees. In the case of Spain, 5.8% of them are new workersA percentage that is not the highest in the EU, as it stands behind Finland (6%) or Denmark (5.9%).
A recent inclusion does not imply a pure creation of employment: it can react to a “new busy”, that is, one who did not work in the previous quarter, as well as the one who has already told how this has changed the work. Except, This is an immigration factor (New workers who have recently arrived in a country who are not deducted from unemployment or inaction), which has an important weight in the northern labor markets, as in Spain, although there his positive contribution provides a greater distortion, as we said in the elections.
But Really differential fact Our country is a percentage of people who have just left their work: 1.1 million people without work are equal to 5% of employees. This is the highest percentage of the European Union and a lot of distance from the three countries that follow us: Finland (3.7%), Sweden (3.6%) and France (3.6%).
All these “extrebajadors” – a new, unemployed, unemployed dismissal? Or people who resign or resign for educational reasons or to solve a family or personal duties? Eurostat does not indicate the first, although in 2023 he published a special study on these figures, which showed that 81.6% of his “abandonment” reacted to the reasons for the work, be it at the end of the temporary agreement, dismissal or closing of the business. The percentage that Italy exceeds 89.9%, Hungary with 88.6% and Greece with 87.6%The field is that in these three countries the rotation rotation is also much less than in Spain.
The sum of both variables shows in our country a 10.8%coefficient of employment rotation, the highest of twenty-seven years and, as we have already said, the only one that exceeds the two-digit. As a level of unemployment.
Does the volatility decrease?
The positive indication of these data lies in the fact that the volatility is reduced, although slowly: the data of the first quarter of 2025 is 10.8%, contrast with 12% of the same period in 2019, although the data of 2020 and 2021 noted by the pandemia were slightly lower than the current ones. But the most amazing thing is that This descent takes place in both variablesRecords and outputs, at the same time. What never happened in the historical series.
EUROSTAT data dates back to 2009, when the great recession has already struck Spain In the form of intensive destruction of employmentThen, 7.1% of employees have just lost their work in the last three months, while 5.7% have just started a new job. This gap remained negative until 2015, when The speed of new additions exceeded the outputsThe field since then, with the exception of the pandemic, it has remained so.
Throughout the series it is clear that When placement lowers outputs, on the contrary. This seems to have all the logic, because it confirms the idea that the creation of pure employment depends on more additions than exits. But this is only the only reason On the labor market as volatile as Spanish.
Ideally, if we look at markets with a very low level of unemployment, such as Germany, it is that the speed of tickets for new jobs is much superior to exits, but without large fluctuations. This means that the promotions are stable (although over time many employees jump from one job), so the decrease in unemployment was much more durable. Therefore, episodes such as financial crisis or pandemic They had a much more moderate effect on the German labor market than in SpainPositive volatility can create employment, but it is much weaker.
However, this trend begins to give the first symptoms of correction in Spain. In fact, since 2022 it is clear that the entrances and speed of exit are descended in parallel, which never happened before. Why? The only explanation is labor reform, This caused the percentage of uncertain salary, which coincided with the extensive moment of the economic cycle.
This would be good news, assumes that the aggregate volatility (the sum of entrances and exits) does not return to a decrease in some of its components, but because both begin to soften. Which will mean that the biggest stability can be a key factor in creating employment And restraining unemployment.
Nevertheless, failure is slow (just a percentage point for three years of labor reform) and remains far from the economy that we are striving. Although indefinite employment is created, Unemployment does not decrease to the same speedPartly from a large volume of people who still lose their work every quarter. For all these reasons, it is still too early to say that Spain is leaving the dangerous zone in which our high volatility is our Great weakness from the point of view of employment from a possible change in the cycleField
