Hamas leader’s death strengthens Israel’s position on concerted exit from Gaza war

This is undoubtedly the most significant death of a leader of the pro-Iranian front since the October 7 MassacreAnd. More important than Haniyeh, more important than Haniyeh Mohammed Deif and even more important than that of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah and right arm of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The importance of Sinwar lies above all in the impact of his death. In hierarchical structures, one leader can be replaced by another with varying degrees of success, but Hamas has long ceased to be a hierarchical structure.

In fact, even before the war began, the difference between the factions based in Doha (the “political” branch, so to speak) and those that controlled daily life in the Gaza Strip was noticeable. This was the case throughout the negotiation period, during which Sinwar repeatedly vetoed deals where the Qatari envoys of the terrorist group had arrived.

And Sinwar decided to take full command and make all the decisions from the start. He was the one who planned the October 7 massacre and who prepared the defense of Gaza through the tunnels which his brother helped to design.

The hostages always depended on him personally and in a way, he considered them a passport to his own security. Different testimonies have agreed to ensure that Sinwar surrounded himself with several of these hostages to prevent an attack precision from Israel.

In short, Since it was Sinwar who started it all, only his death can truly stop it.. It is a murder that goes beyond revenge, even if he is the visible and hated face of October 7. His disappearance unblocks the situation and opens the door to a possible ceasefire and, above all, to the return of more than a hundred hostages – some alive; others, unfortunately, have already died in captivity – which Hamas continues to hold.

The future of the Gaza Strip

Although it is too early to draw conclusions, the truth is that It is difficult to imagine how Hamas can continue the war without Sinwar in front. It is not clear who his successor will be or what position he will occupy in the conflict.

In Hamas, there are various sensitivitiessome more moderate and others more bellicose. Sinwar was at the extreme of extremes, and it is normal that now other voices can intervene to negotiate with Israel an end to the war worthy of the organization and which stops harming the Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip.

This end can no longer resemble the one proposed by Israel and made public by Joe Biden, even if Netanyahu ultimately reversed course. This may have the appearance of a pact, but it will have to be a surrender. In other words, Israel’s demands will have to be met from day one: the handover of all hostages, perhaps, of course, in exchange for a gesture of goodwill in the form of an exchange of prisoners – barely in the proportion we saw last November – and the disappearance of Hamas as the ruling entity in the Gaza Strip.

Actually, Israel has always spoken of the “disappearance” of the terrorist groupbut it is a terrorist group supported by Qatar, Iran and Turkey. This isn’t going to disappear overnight, just like the Taliban didn’t disappear with much less support. Netanyahu will have to be content with their withdrawal and not sabotage a possible coalition government led by a representative figure accepted by the Arab world, probably at the suggestion of the Palestinian Authority, namely Fatah.

The fact that Sinwar died in a chance clash with the Israeli army and it is not a selective murder, like that of so many of his colleagues, This is the only thing Hamas can hold on to at the moment to negotiate.

Although the Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, like Netanyahu himself in his televised speech after confirming the identity of the deceased, highlighted the IDF’s work to “limit the movements” of Sinwar, It remains to be seen whether they really knew where he was hiding and whether they were therefore really close to the hostages. This information – if anyone in Hamas has it – could be worth its weight in gold.

Setback for Hezbollah and Tehran

Sinwar’s death also affects, by extension, other conflicts that Israel has opened in the Middle East. Recently, Sheikh Naim Qassem He insisted that there would be no peace in Lebanon until there was peace in Gaza. Certainly, the interim leader of Hezbollah did not count on the fact that peace would actually be capitulation.

Headless and disorganized, the Shiite terrorist group still capable of putting Israel in troubleas he demonstrated with his drone attack on the Binyamina military base, but he still finds himself in a situation of obvious weakness in the face of his enemy.

The excuse of the dual struggle for the Palestinian people could motivate their activism, but if Hamas lays down its arms, this excuse will disappear and the possibility of a ceasefire which includes the withdrawal of Hezbollah north of the Litani River, as established by Resolution 1701, will prevail in its entirety. The only thing that can happen is that Iran denies Hezbollah the opportunity to surrender.

Unlike Hamas, which depends on several countries and is predominantly Sunni, Hezbollah is nothing other than the extension of the ayatollahs’ regime to Lebanon. They will have to say something about it.

Which brings us to the third derivative of Sinwar’s death: How will it be received in Iran?. Over the past four years, starting with the assassination of General Soulemaini by the United States, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saw how all his allies disappeared, many of whom had a close personal relationship with him.

We are still waiting for the attack promised by Israel In response to the Iranian bombings of October 1, perhaps this would be a good time to stop boasting and also seek a peace agreement as quickly as possible.

Public congratulations from the president Joe Biden reflects the relief of his administration, now faced with the possible closure of a conflict that threatened to create a global crisis such that it would destroy the candidacy of Kamala Harris at the White House. Everything will now depend on the will of the parties and so far they have demonstrated the right one, but it seems that finally a scenario is truly opening up in which de-escalation and compromise can be more than just hackneyed words .