Hamas confirmed this Friday the death of its political and military leader, Yahya Sinwarin the hands of a special IDF group. Sinwar’s death took both sides by surprise, as it occurred during an exchange of fire as Israelis were clearing demolished homes in southern Gaza. Sinwar was accompanied by only two other militants and with no sign of other units nearby. Sinwar’s loneliness is quite significant for what Hamas is now: a scattered, incommunicable band and in which each unit must act independently.
He didn’t want to give that impression Khalil al-Hayyaassistant and delegate of Sinwar in Qatar, during the televised announcement of the death of his leader. On the contrary, al-Hayya seemed defiant and haughty, threaten Israel with continued war and assuring that “they will not drop the flag of Sinwar”, which he described as a martyr.
Hezbollah spokesmen made similar comments, promising to avenge its death with new attacks against Israel, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian assured that the “struggle against occupation” was still on in the Middle East. -East.
In any case, these are expected answers. Neither Hamas nor its allies can now recognize the state of great weakness in which they find themselves. Firstly because it would demoralize its bases even more. Secondly, because the logic is that they are considering some kind of negotiation and you cannot arrive at the negotiation already exhausted from home. Finally, we must remember that Hamas currently has no leader He doesn’t even have a defined position on what to do in Gaza. All of this was marked by Haniyeh and Sinwar and both are now dead.
Continuous options
So it begins look for a new bossalthough it is a process of relative importance. No one will be able to accumulate all the power that Sinwar accumulated in one person, especially after Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran. It will not succeed because, as we said previously, there is no possible control over dispersed and often isolated units, both in the tunnels and on the ground. Most likely, we will see shared leadership between several recognizable figures trying to prevent the total collapse of the terrorist organization.
One of these names could be that of Khlail al-Hayya himself. The fact that he was chosen as spokesperson in such an important statement is already a signal in itself. However, al-Hayya has a long history of working in the shadows as a negotiator – he actively participated in the Cairo talks – and it remains to be seen whether Hamas wants to place someone important as a recognizable leader or ‘he prefers to use something that looks like a lure. Given what has happened in recent months, it is not crazy to think that The next one they name will be eliminated by Israel as soon as possible.
Other names cited by American media like CNN are Mousa Abou Marzoukformer founder of the group and one of its current political leaders; Khaled Mechaalformer political leader and respected figure in the international community… and Mohammed Sinwarthe brother of Yahya, responsible for Gaza’s civil and military infrastructure and a man who is said to have the support of militants, particularly fighters.
The fight between Meshaal and Sinwar would be the fight between a more diplomatic position inclined to negotiation and a more closed and continuing position that would seek to confront Israel whenever possible. Without the military support of Hezbollah, which takes care of its affairs, nor those of the Iranalso in open conflict with Israel and in constant dialogue with Russia for possible future alliances, this confrontation appears to have little progress.
In any case, as stated, the elected leader will have little room for action and little hope of life if he does not make some gestures towards Israel such as the partial or total release of the hostages still alive or, at least, the repatriation of the bodies of the deceased.
Negotiation or escalation?
Nor is it certain that Israel will make the task easier. After the euphoria and optimism of the first hours among the families of the hostages and the positive messages from the United States, the time has come to make a decision: to put an end to Hamas now that it is almost sunk. . Or settle for a negotiated victory this satisfied a large part of their demands since the start of the war. The president Biden He insists it will be the first, as he always has, but he is not sure Netanyahu will listen to him.
From a military perspective, an intensification of attacks would make sense. Hamas is headless and, even if its definitive elimination is impossible, it is too infiltrated among the civilian population and her foreign allies are very powerful – yes, she could be forced out of power for a few years.
Likewise, the Israeli army hopes that Sinwar’s death will allow it to focus on the fate of the hostages, likely scattered across the Gaza Strip, and that this will make any negotiations pointless. This is the position defended by the most right wing of the government… but also by the former conservative prime minister. Neftali Bennettone of the most popular politicians among the Israeli population.
On the other hand, the temptation for a ceasefire is very present if it takes place under the conditions demanded by Israel: return of hostages homedelivery of weapons and abandonment of the government of the Gaza Strip in favor of an Arab figure of consensus who would allow us to have a reliable interlocutor in the area. Although Netanyahu always opposed the idea of two States, he probably welcomed the restoration of the Fatah regime and the Palestinian Authority in the occupied territories.
In this way, Iranian influence would be removed and something similar to diplomacy between Palestinians and Israelis would be consolidated, as was the case in the last years of his life. Yasser Arafat. Either way, the Prime Minister knows he has the upper hand and can choose between force and speech as long as he pleases. Suspending the situation in Gaza to be able to concentrate on Lebanon and Iran would harm neither his country nor his army after more than a year of daily tensions.
