On May 31, Joe Biden announced during a public televised intervention the imminence of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Nearly eight months after the terrorist group sparked war with a massacre of civilians, the US president outlined in the first person something that could catapult his options for renewing his mandate after the November elections.
What we have since called “The Biden plan“was a mixture of proposals from three of the parties involved: on the one hand, the Arab allies –Egypt, Jordan And Taste– ; on the other, the United States itself and, finally, as the author of the final draft of the agreement, Israel.
When the news broke, Hamas was receptive to negotiations. However, Netanyahu immediately set conditions that went against the very spirit of the agreement: first, Hamas had to surrender to achieve the “total victory” promised to the Israeli people. SO, it would be seen.
At the White House they were shocked. The prime minister not only rejected an American proposal – he had been doing so since October, with the sole exception of the brief exchange of hostages for prisoners on November 22 – but he also rejected the proposal that Israeli negotiators themselves had presented on the table. Cairo.
It was unprecedented and at the same time significant. Although Netanyahu hid behind internal pressuresLike his ultra-Orthodox allies, he himself would most likely be opposed to any ceasefire. It always has been. He let Biden commit to the world and his voters, then let him down.
Please two electorates
The feud between Biden and Netanyahu is relatively recent. After decades of closeness and sincere affection between the two men beyond politics, Biden had the idea of criticizing the Hebrew prime minister when he wanted to end the impartiality of the government. Supreme Court.
“Bibi“He hasn’t forgiven himself since. There has been a mixture of rage, revenge, political expediency… and personal judgment in this year of war. Of course, Netanyahu is following whatever agenda suits him the best politically, but yes, In this way he can deal a blow to Biden and Harris, honey on flakes.
It’s been like this from the beginning. When Israel was brutally beaten by Hamas, the United States set three goals: avoid a massacre in Gaza and guarantee humanitarian aid to the civilian population, prevent the war from spreading to Lebanon and above all try to keep Iran as far away from the conflict as possible so as not to extend it and not to endanger endangering the numerous troops that the United States maintains in the region.
We must not forget that a few weeks before the Hamas massacre, Biden had revealed the proximity of recognition of the State of Israel by Saudi Arabia. Jake Sullivan National Security Advisorhad described the situation in the Middle East as “the most stable in decades”.
The problem with these three goals was that they clashed with Netanyahu’s…and Biden had to stay on Israel’s side. By conviction, for geopolitical reasons and for electoral reasons: as the elections approach, anger the pro-Israeli electorate It would have been suicide.
So the United States had no choice but to swallow: it swallowed with the humanitarian blockade of the Gaza Strip, it swallowed with the ground invasion, it swallowed with the continued failure of negotiations and they swallowed, even though they repeatedly condemned him, with the unacceptable number of civilian casualties.
Netanyahu sensed this weakness and did nothing but exploit it. In doing so, and as Biden followed suit, a new internal problem arose for the American: pro-Palestinian university youth and their camping trips on campus.
Suddenly, panic spread within the Democratic Party: are we not presenting too conservative an image? Are we not at risk of losing the “Sanders voter” who punished us so much in 2016? And in its efforts to please everyone, the Biden administration has found itself in no man’s land.
Shift of the Democratic Party
Without ceasing to support Israel in substance, that is to say militarily, the Democrats gave a 180 degree turn in his public message as early as March, when Israel began preparing for the invasion of Rafah.
Vice President Harris criticized Israel and Netanyahujust like the Democratic leader in the Senate, the Jew Chuck Schumer, who went so far as to say that “Netanyahu was an obstacle to peace” and demanded elections in the Jewish state. This Saturday again, the now candidate published a declaration of solidarity with the suffering of the Lebanese people, which did not please Tel Aviv at all.
THE the straw that broke the camel’s back This was accompanied by the attack on several collaborators of World Central Kitchen, the NGO of chef José Andrés – another very important figure in the Democratic Party milieu – on April 1.
There, Biden had to take a public position and not take refuge behind the Secretary of State, Anthony BlinkenDefense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the aforementioned Jake Sullivan. Biden publicly condemned the attack, claimed Israel “went too far” and said he would stop arms shipments if Israel dared attack Rafah without its consent… which Israel did a few weeks later late.
The open confrontation has damaged the image of the United States as a global superpower. This didn’t even tickle Israel. When Biden announced on May 7 that he would stop sending certain types of weapons to Israel because of their possible use against civilians, Netanyahu reacted angrily: he accused him of abandoning his country and leave it at the mercy of Iran, which had attacked it. Tel Aviv on April 13 with hundreds of drones and missiles. The entire Republican Party took its side and Donald Trump He assured that “no Jew should vote for Biden”.
Of course, that was completely unfair. Biden and the United States defended Israel against this Iranian attack, they defended Israel against accusations of the UNof the International Criminal Court and of International Court of Justice.
He had tried to impose his theses in the negotiations and the only thing he asked in return was a little loyalty. He never got it. By attacking Biden and the Democrats, Netanyahu put war on the electoral table. He knew exactly what he was doing.
Since then, everything has gone from bad to worse: the public snub on May 31 was followed by a campaign of assassinations of leaders of Hamas And Hezbollah in Damascus, Beirut and even Tehran. Military success made any diplomatic agreement impossible. Israel was not going to stop now that everything was going in its face after spending months waiting for its opportunity.
For its part, the Democratic Party was more concerned about the nomination of Kamala Harris as the new candidate and maintained its indecision: the big favorite for vice president, Josh Shapirogovernor of Pennsylvania, was replaced by Tim Walz in an attempt to please the more progressive wing of the party.
No initiative
What Biden has succeeded throughout this year is to demonstrate that the United States no longer has the will to get worse. This is not something new: after all, his predecessor was ready to even meet Kim Jong-Un and to show admiration for Chinese and Russian leaders as examples to follow.
The president’s indecision, his continued support and his criticism at the same time, have shown that the United States can no longer impose anything. In Ukraine, we are still afraid of Putin’s red lines. In the Middle East, we can only react to what is said in Tel Aviv, without ever taking the initiative.
Failure Goals
Their three objectives have completely failed: the humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip has taken its toll tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of displaced people. The war eventually spread to Lebanon, where bombing of Beirut was accompanied by a ground incursion into the United Nations-controlled area.
Finally, Iran is more present than everwith a new, more violent attack on Israeli urban centers.
Despite everything, Biden continues to ensure that is “optimistic” around a ceasefire. He didn’t discover anything. In a recent public intervention, he assured that he was aware of a possible attack by Israel against Iranian oil refineries. This is not up to him and it is not reasonable to publicly inform the enemy where he is going to attack him. It also makes no sense in economic terms: the price of a barrel of crude oil immediately skyrocketed.
Without knowing how the Israeli response will take shape, The United States continues to lose its prestige in fits and starts. No one pays attention to him: neither his greatest ally in the region, nor his greatest enemy. As if it didn’t exist. Unheard of since the end of the Second World War and which is frankly worrying.
