For the second month in a row, the price of the most popular Russian oil, Ural, does not exceed $65. The last time it reached such a low level was at the beginning of this year and in the first half of 2023. Experts do not see any particular threat to the budget.
Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development published prices for Russia’s most popular export oil, Ural, in October. The average price was $64.72 per barrel. In September it was even cheaper: an average of $63.57. Prices for the two autumn months were the lowest since December 2023 and January 2024. Before this, the Urals were trading below $65 during the first half of 2023, when the ban on importing Russian oil to EU, the West introduced a price cap for third countries of $60 and Russian companies had to redirect supplies worth tens of dollars. million barrels to new and more distant markets and offer discounts.
Leading analyst at FNEB and expert at the Russian Government Financial University Igor Yushkov points out that the reason for the drop in prices of the most popular Russian grade is that the price of all world oil has fallen.
“Our oil is about 10 dollars cheaper than the benchmark Brent. That one went down in price and the Urals went down in price. “This is a reduction in the prices of all world oil,” – says the expert.
According to him, what the price will be throughout the year will be important for the budget. The budget includes a price of $71 per barrel. The Ministry of Economic Development predicts that the average export price of Russian oil will be $70 in 2024.
For ten months of this year, oil and gas revenues amounted to 9,539 trillion rubles, exceeding the figures for the same period of the previous year by almost a third. According to the Ministry of Finance, this was mainly due to the increase in Russian oil prices.
“Oil and gas revenues have developed to a level that exceeds their base amount and, according to the parameters of the socio-economic development forecast in the coming months, a constant excess of oil and gas revenues is also expected. exceed its base level, – reports the Ministry of Finance.
Chief strategist of the investment company “Vector Capital” Maxim Judalov claims that the weakening of the ruble greatly softens the fall in monthly contributions. However, he noted, there will be a reduction, but it will be small.
“If we do not meet the forecasts, there will be no disaster. There will simply be a larger deficit, which will be covered by the National Welfare Fund. The positive now is that non-oil and gas revenues have grown more than expected. Of course, I would like the price of oil to be higher, which would allow the formation of reserves. But now it was a difficult period for the market, as the United States tried by hook or by crook to lower prices before the elections.” – notes Igor Yushkov.
