The election of José Luis Escriva as governor of the Bank of Spain raises many doubts about the extent to which he will maintain the independence required by his new position at the head of an institution that, among its functions, must analyze the economic and financial policy of the Bank. The test of truth will be in your reports on budgetary and pension issues.although for now the profile opens up a scenario of uncertainties, in which Pedro Sánchez himself could end up losing his controversial bet.
Politically, the appointment of the new governor, which for the first time will be made official without an agreement with the opposition, is interpreted as part of the strategy of the president of the government and socialist leader (not in vain, it coincides with the call of the PSOE Federal Congress in November), showing greater support for his economic policy. In addition, he “rewards” Escriva for his fight to carry out a pension reform, harshly questioned by the two experts, but also by institutions such as AiRef (which Escriva himself chaired) or the Bank of Spain itself.
Even if Escriva He doesn’t have a PSOE cardSince Sánchez’s second term, he has been considered one of the pillars, along with Nadia Calviño, of the socialist “orthodoxy” in economic matters, more liberal and centrist than that defended by the ministers of Unidas Podemos and Sumar. Of course: it remains to be seen whether he can objectively evaluate a project that he personally designed and that his successor at the head of the portfolio Inclusion, social security and migrationElma Saiz continued without adding or subtracting a comma.
¿How the new governor will show his independence? The precedent of Miguel Ángel Fernández Ordóñez, who in 2006 was promoted from Secretary of State for Finance to Governor by the then President of the Government, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, continues to be too present in the institution to be forgotten. Even Sánchez has come to criticize this appointment because of the role played by the supervisor. in the first phase of the financial crisis that broke out in 2008.
The question is clear: should we expect the reports and analyses of the Bank of Spain to scrupulously align with the strategy of Moncloa? The experts and authoritative voices within the institution itself consulted by elEconomista.es doubt it. They remember that the governor of the Bank of Spain occupies a position that “transcends” the vagaries of national politicswith a six-year term and a seat at the European Central Bank.
In this sense, they completely reject the fears that Escrivá’s arrival would open the door to the government using financial surveillance reports to “put pressure” on banks. The inspectors are a body very aware of their independence and, in addition, the systemic surveillance tasks are carried out through mixed teams made up of Frankfurt officials. He believes that there is therefore no room for political use.
Another thing is the macroeconomic reports, which address issues such as fiscal policy or pension policy, which in the past have generated many conflicts between the supervisor and the government in power. When he was Minister of Social Security, Escriva He has already attacked these jobsbut now the situation is very different.
Although Escrivá’s margin of intervention is greater, these reports are not written by the governor, but rather by the technicians of the study department. Its content is approved by vote of the councilors (who already have a majority considered close to the PSOE, pending the appointment of the position of deputy governor). This will not prevent the most “difficult” moments for Escrivá arrive when the documents must evaluate their own pension reform.
In this sense, the main doubt is whether Escriva will keep the current Director General of Economy and Statistics, Ángel Gavilán, in his position. A decision that would generate political and internal criticism and that, in essence, would not change anything in the reports themselves.
Nor in the studies and research (many of an academic nature) published by the Bank of Spain and which cover issues of all kinds. Although many of them are publicized, the supervisor always recalls that they are prepared by independent experts and do not “necessarily” represent the vision of the organization.
Bad surprise for Sanchez?
Where Escrivá has a margin, and where his profile as governor is at stake, is in public interventions, especially in Parliament, on the occasion of important stages such as the presentation of the annual report or interventions on budgets and pensions. Here, the debate is guaranteed with the opposition groups, but also, depending on the circumstances, with the government itself.
No one within the banking supervisor questions the professional and technical qualifications of the current head of digital transformation and public service to occupy this position. The reluctance comes from his role within the government, but also from the frictions that arose precisely at the time he was at the head of AiRef. But this same character raises doubts that his role is limited to that of a simple “squire” of Moncloa. Especially when he will continue to occupy this position at the end of this mandate, even if the government changes.
The clearest precedent is that of Miguel Ángel Fernadez Ordóñez, who did not hold back his critical messages to the Zapatero executive in the face of the labor and pension reforms of 2010 and 2011. The difference with Escriva is that he was a former Secretary of State, not a single minister who had directly participated in the development of laws of this caliber.
But beyond the analyses on pensions, it will be their position on issues such as the general budgets of the State or the reform of the financing of the regions (marked by the Catalan “concert”). which will be the first test of the ‘cotton’ of its management.
Many today doubt his ability to maintain Pablo Hernández de Cos’s profile as a rigorously technical critic, although experts point out that these are areas in which Escriva has the possibility of “standing out.” and even sooner or later, give a bad surprise to Sanchez.
