“It’s the economy, stupid.” (“It’s the economy that counts, stupid”), as summarized by an advisor to (Democratic) President Bill Clinton in 1992. Most electoral studies following the 2024 US presidential election show that economic factors, particularly rising prices, influenced the vote of voters in favor of Donald Trump.
Since mid-2022, the US economy has prospered: growth forecasts at the federal level are optimistic and employment prospects are good. Unemployment has been falling since the beginning of the summer (when it was 4.3%) until reaching 4.1%, a rate that would make many European governments dream: this figure had increased to 14.8% in April 2020.
But inflation has been one of the economic markers of Biden’s four-year presidency. Since mid-2023 it has returned to acceptable levels after reaching more than 9% in June 2022, after the double shock of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. In October 2024, it fell to 2.6%.
There is also a psychological dimension to the perception of inflation, which may explain why, despite a doing well economy, voters turned to the candidate who painted a very dark picture, Donald Trump. Studies have shown that consumers have a “reference price” in mind for everyday consumer products: they can accept an increase, but at a reasonable price. When that price increases too quickly, they feel let down. But this is what has happened for the last four years.
A YouGov survey from August 2024 confirms the existence of this gap between inflation and sentiment, since the vast majority of respondents believed that it was much higher than the 2.9% increase measured at that time, 11% even estimated that was superior. 16% annually, or five times more than reality.
Salaries that increase more than inflation
Driven by the increase in the productivity of American employees, wage growth has regained the lead over inflation during the Biden presidency, suggesting that this increase would offset rising prices.
However, these salary increases are not uniform, according to the calculations of the New York Times ; The lowest-paid workers saw some of the largest increases (for example, in the leisure or hospitality sectors), while other sectors saw their wages fall relative to inflation, such as in advertising or the chemical industry.
An income distribution that remains very unequal
In four years, US GDP has increased significantly: some 154 billion dollars (around 146 billion euros) in the second quarter of 2024, up from 104 in the first quarter of 2020, and wage levels have generally increased. reached inflation. . But income distribution has barely changed in a country where economic inequality is already significant.
In 2020, the richest 1% of Americans received more than 23% of the national income, and this figure remained stable until June 2024. At the other end of the social scale, the poorest 20% initially received the 3.2% of national income. 2020: this figure is 3.1% in mid-2024.
By comparison, in less unequal developed countries, studies show that inequality is increasing but remains far from American standards. Thus, the richest 1% of French people would capture 12.7% of income in 2023, according to calculations by economist Thomas Piketty.
