The world changed the day the Israelis found a way to respond to a request from Islamist Hezbollah militants to insert very light – undetectable – explosives into the batteries of their pagers and detonate them all at once, when the time comes. after eleven months of rocket fire against towns in the north of the country. The Israelis, because no one hides that they were Israeli, demonstrated to the rest of the world that national technology is useful not only for mass espionage, but also for selective assassinations, and destroyed in one fell swoop the self-esteem of Hezbollah, Iran’s plans and the communications networks that unite them.
Only two weeks later, the world is different. The ingenious maneuver by the Israeli secret services, put in place almost a year ago, was the prelude to a dismantling operation unimaginable a month ago.
The first thing was the synchronized detonation in the pockets or a foot from the face of its owners. The second was, a day later, the synchronized detonation of hundreds of cell phones, walkiesportable radios and even solar panels. The third thing, especially last week, was the thousands of bombings in southern Lebanon and in the Shiite neighborhood of Beirut, areas controlled by Hezbollah, to destroy its enemy’s arsenals.
And the fourth thing, in the same period, was to eliminate -one by one- the most powerful men in the organization, leaving for he dessert toI supreme leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to whom Tehran has entrusted billions of dollars to destroy or at least scare to the Jewish state.
No previous murder equals in interest and relevance AndI assassination of Nasrallah. But among the at least 600 deaths recorded this week by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, many innocent people, come out some names. Ibrahim Aqil He was head of operations and commander of Hezbollah’s elite corps, the Radwan: he fell on Saturday last week, end the reward offered by the United States for any information on his whereabouts —In the 1980s, Aqil killed 314 Americans and 58 French people.—.
Ibrahim Mohammed Qabisi He was at the head of the Missile and Rocket Force: he fell on Tuesday with his deputies Abbas Ibrahim Sharaf Ad-Din And Hussein Hany. Fouad Choukr He was the head of the Strategic Organization Units, one of the United States’ most wanted criminals.: He fell before the others, at the end of July. Ali Karaki He was the commander of the Southern Front: he fell on Monday, says Israel, unlike Hezbollah, which he never confirmed his death.
The Spanish
An easy-to-recognize ghost
SO that no murder equals in interest and relevance the murder of Nasrallah. But the truth is that the details who are known about the operation which led to his death do not contribute tojourney attention.
Up to three well-informed sources told reporters Ronen Bergman and Patrick Kingsley of the American newspaper The New York Timesthat Israeli secret services had been tracking him for months. Nasrallah, despite the legend, elusive, was not a ghost in the eyes of the Mossad. They had it within reach several times, and yet they preferred to wait. Finally, last Friday, their patience has run out: the prime minister Netanyahuinformed before speaking before the United Nations General Assembly, gave his agreement and the Israelis dropped 80 bombs on the position of the supreme leader of the militia, meeting in a building in Beirut with senior officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Last week’s Israeli gamble is unprecedented in modern history.
In 2006, when troops from Tel Aviv crossed the Lebanese border to confront Hezbollah, air forces attacked 200 positions a day. Last Monday alone, Israel reached 1,600. Then they accused the Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of lukewarmness in the face of its main threat in the north, has drawn criticism for years. Over the past decade, Israel has decided on a doctrinal shift, favoring the combination of air and missile forces with the strengthening of its intelligence services to combat Iran and its tentacles in the Middle East, and the results are obvious.
Now the unknowns
How did the Israeli services manage to penetrate the heart of Hezbollah, to interfere in its communication and distribution channels, and to discover the location of its most powerful men? The security failure transcends Hezbollah and reaches Iran. They killed the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyehduring his official visit to Tehran, After taking possession of Massoud Pezeshkianin July. It is precisely the president who replaced Ebrahim Raïssikilled in a mysterious helicopter crash in May. And there is another significant, if overlooked, episode: that same month, Israel launched a measured attack around the Isfahan nuclear power plant in central Iran, with a drone reportedly taking off from the interior of the country.
There are no definitive answers, but there are rough analyzes which testify to internal disaffection and systemic corruption.
What analysts are watching most closely is Iran’s reaction. For years, it has focused much of its deterrence efforts on the existential threat Hezbollah poses to Israel. Much of its deterrence was left in the bones within 12 days. “Iran must face the reality: Israel is dismantling its closest and most powerful ally”writes historian Afshon Ostovar. “A year ago, the Iranian Resistance Axis was on the rise, today it is in decline.”
“Nasrallah is a key figure and, in many ways, he is the successor to Soleimani,” said Gregory Brew, an analyst at the Eurasia Group specializing in the ayatollah regime. “His death accelerates the decentralization of the Resistance Axis and further weakens Iran’s non-nuclear deterrent”.
Iran’s fragility lies in the defeat of its tentacles in Palestine and Lebanon against Israel, pushed by its Western allies to accept a ceasefire that would alleviate the tragedy of tens of thousands of civilians trapped in its war against Islamist militias. “The main challenge for Iran,” says Hamidreza Azizi, researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, “is the lack of adequate options to confront Israel without entering into a direct war that Iran is trying to avoid . »
There is no indication, for the moment, that Tehran is getting more involved in defending the remnants of Hezbollah. Netanyahu, However, he is reluctant to risk imminent withdrawal. “Responsible governments must not only support Israel in its efforts to push back Iran, but they must also join us,” he said Friday at United Nations headquarters. “must join with Israel to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program”. SO He threatened the regime’s leaders: “There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel will not reach.” »
His words reached Tehran. Yesterday, the agency Reuters reported, citing Ayatollah regime sources, that Khamenei was transferred to “a safe location with increased security.”
