Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election could be a turning point in changing the balance of power in the Middle East. Dr. Benny Swati, Israel’s leading expert on Iran, spoke to Maariv about the challenges and opportunities facing Israel and the region following Trump’s victory.
“The Iranian regime is in a state of real alarm,” said Dr. Swati. “Memories of Trump’s previous term, which imposed unprecedented sanctions, are still fresh.” He stressed that Iranians remember well how Trump did not hesitate to apply significant economic pressure, which greatly damaged the Iranian economy and its support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah in the region.
Dr. Swati noted that Trump’s position on the nuclear deal is more complex than initially thought. “Trump will not return to the current version of the agreement,” he stated categorically. “The new administration is likely to make strong demands on three key issues: uranium enrichment levels, control of nuclear facilities and, for the first time, restrictions on Iran’s missile program.” Swati said the Iranians would need to demonstrate “considerable goodwill” before continuing negotiations.
Regarding regional relations, the expert noted that the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, see Trump as a natural ally. “The Biden administration has been cautious, especially when it comes to normalizing relations with Israel,” he said. “Trump’s return could clear up this diplomatic stalemate.”
Swati stressed that the consequences for Israel are significant. “This is a unique window of opportunity,” he said. “As pressure on Iran increases, Israel will have more freedom of action both against Iran itself and its proxies in the region.”
However, he also warned that time is critical. “Israel must act quickly and decisively to exploit these opportunities, especially in Lebanon against Hezbollah,” he said.
Despite the positive expectations, Dr. Swati also issued a warning. “The Trump of 2024 will not necessarily be the same as the Trump of 2020,” he warned. “The president-elect may seek quick victories and ‘deals’ that can be implemented to the detriment of Israeli interests.”
He stressed the need for careful monitoring of the actual development of American policy. Swati also highlighted the indirect impact on the Palestinian issue. “Trump’s return could free the hands of moderate Arab countries to advance normalization processes with Israel, even amid tensions in Gaza,” he explained. “For example, the Saudis may feel freer to strengthen their relationship with Israel.”
Cursor previously wrote how world leaders congratulated Trump on his election victory.
Dr. Swati outlined three possible scenarios for the medium term: tightening sanctions against Iran, which would lead to a change in Iran’s behavior; a step-by-step negotiation process with mutual concessions; or a regional escalation that will lead to a new crisis. Swati concluded by emphasizing that “Israel’s success in the coming period depends on its ability to seize this window of opportunity in close coordination with the new US administration.” He recommended that Israel develop a clear strategy, including weakening the Iranian proxy network, strengthening ties with Gulf states and preparing alternatives in case of unexpected changes in US policy. “The change of leadership in the United States opens a new page in regional relations,” concluded Swati. “The challenge for Israel is to take advantage of these opportunities, recognizing that the window may be shorter than expected.”
