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“If warming continues at the current rate, many Mediterranean territories will be uninhabitable”

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“If warming continues at the current rate, many Mediterranean territories will be uninhabitable”

lhe deadly floods that hit Spain add to the long list of devastating events that have mourned Europe and France for more than thirty years, at the same time that the UN publishes a new report on the insufficiency of climate policies, that is leading the planet towards a warming of +3.1ºC at the end of this century, and that the third national plan for adaptation to climate change has just been presented. For someone who has been working in disasters for two decades, the only surprising thing is that we still find ways to surprise each other.

In and of themselves, these storms are not exceptional. They occur every year in autumn and characterize the Mediterranean climate. They are responsible for a sudden increase in the flow of rivers, which overflow their channels and submerge the coastal plains. Its violence is all the more difficult to imagine since most of the time the Mediterranean torrents have a low flow. However, one need only look at the width of the valleys downstream to be convinced of the volumes of water that can flow in a few hours, making any possibility of resistance or even evacuation illusory.

This phenomenon of torrential flooding was well known to the ancients. At the local level, we even gave them names: the “iguats” of Roussillon, the “vidourlades” of Sommières (Gard). Over the centuries, Mediterranean societies have adapted. Human occupation favored heights; the houses were raised; Bridge arches and piers are calibrated so that they are not washed away or create destructive ice jams.

artificial environment

During the 20thmy During the 21st century, scientific and technological advances have allowed better prediction of weather phenomena, better warning and the strengthening of dikes. However, disasters occur every year. The cost of damage is constantly increasing and the number of victims remains high.

This paradox can be explained in two ways. On the one hand, the number of people exposed to these risks has increased significantly. Many municipalities have opted for tourism and the residential economy, with the continuous arrival of new residents, young or retired households, permanent or temporary residents (secondary residences). Population growth occurred through urban expansion in river valleys and coastal plains. In particular, agricultural land has been subdivided into individual single-story houses, which offer no shelter in the event of a sudden rise in water level.

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