Commercial war unleashed by Trump influence on the growth of the world economyl. This is calculated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which published on Tuesday the update of its growth forecasts, marked by these movements of the US President. The monetary institution has reduced its growth forecasts against January and provides for the world economy to increase 2.8 % this year and 3 % in 2026Half of the point in the first year. The amount of the fall is 0.8%if we calculate two exercises regarding the fact that they predicted three months ago.
But a large loud fall is associated with the United States, the forecast of which was reduced by 0.9%, according to the global economy (Weo) of the IMF. Growth assessment this year is 1.8 %, and tariffs are 0.4 percentage points this reduction. According to an alternative trajectory calculated by the IMF, without tariffs in global growth there would only be a modest reduction by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2026, reaching growth by 3.2% for two years.
“Fast climbing Commercial tension He caused an extremely high level of political ambiguity, which makes it difficult to establish the central prospect of global growth, ”the IMF warns. The report takes into account not only tariff ads proclaimed by the President of the Republicans. April 1 and 4, April 4 But also countermeasures of other countries.
In all this context, Spain looks like a head, like Unique from the economy that will grow in 2025The field in the IMF report is indicated Spain GDP growth of 2.5% in 20250.2% more than in the previous report, as already published a few days ago. By 2026, the agency foresees GDP growth by 1.8%, as predicted in January.
This report adds is the possibility of comparing with other developed economies, and not only with the United States that lose Trump in this economic competition. According to the IMF, for the development of the economy, according to the IMF, growth decreases from 1.8 %, estimated in 2024 to 1.4 % in 2025 and 1.5 % in 2026. It is currently predicted that the growth by 2025 will be 0.5 percentage points lower than in January of the forecast. Forecasts by 2025 include significant reduction reviews for Canada (-0.6%), Japan (-0.5%), Great Britain (-0.5%)Germany (-0.2%) or France (-0.3%), among others.
Good performance of the Spanish economy
In Spain, “whose dynamism is contrasting with the slow dynamics of the rest of the world,” the IMF emphasizes that “the important remnants of the results are best provided in 2024,” and notes as positive actions that are also taken for reconstruction after the floods caused by Danae. In a specific annual form for Spain, published on April 10, the IMF emphasized the “solid activity” of the Spanish economy, supported by the export of services and in Good evolution of the labor marketField
“It is assumed that consumption growth remains firm, with a constant increase in real wages and a gradual decrease in household saving coefficients, which will compensate for the slowest increase in employment,” the IMF summed up. Then the agency foresees the unemployment rate of about 11% in the medium term, and that both the total and basic inflation will continue to decrease in order to put itself About 2 % at the end of the yearField
In addition, the IMF added that in the short term, the Spanish economy Will continue higher than the average value of the Eurozone before, which currently predicts an increase of 0.8% this year – Before “gradually slowing down”, since an increase in the population of work and exports age is normal.
IMF and BM reach their spring meeting with tariffs as a background
Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (BM) began this Monday, met with tariffs as a background and warning about the consequences of uncertainty and volatility caused by Trump measures. Both the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgiv, and the President of BM, Ajay Banga, have already been warned in previous days that these effects will slow down the growth of global gross domestic product (GDP). Both economists considered it necessary to cooperate to quickly achieve agreements and establish more clear rules for world trade, collects EFE.
In particular, also Bulgarian policy Last Thursday, he said that currently published forecasts will include “noticeable reductions” in terms of growth, although “Recession” was excludedField
The appointment takes place at a time when Trump again questioned multilaterality, and in which his administration is in full examination of the organizations to which he belongs and supports. The United States is the main shareholder both in the IMF and BM, and there are doubts about whether the country will continue to contribute to its initiatives, such as the commitment of $ 4,000 million for the International Development Association (AIF), which signed their predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden (2021-2025) last year, includes EFE.
