For the Burmese generals, the setbacks are not only military. Three and a half years after the coup d’état in February 2021, the worsening of fighting in Burma in recent months between the armed resistance and the ruling junta is putting the latter in an increasingly unsustainable economic situation.
In a note dated September 4, Singapore-based risk consultancy BMI (Fitch Group) revised the GDP contraction forecast for 2025 to -2.5%, from zero initially. However, the Burmese economy has never recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic and its GDP is already 20% below its 2020 level.
According to BMI, one of the biggest challenges comes from mandatory military service for men under 35, which “leads to a critical reduction in available labor”. This measure, adopted in March to bring fresh blood into the army at a rate of 5,000 new recruits per month, provoked an exodus of young people, both to the maquis, to take up arms, and abroad, to work. The military junta responded with forced recruitment, but also with taxes on the wages of employees abroad and even more border controls, fuelling the vicious circle of panic.
BMI gives Burma the highest score in Asia “political risk”with 79.1 points out of 100. “Given the low probability of reaching an agreement, we believe that the civil war will be prolonged and that any attempt by the regime to revive the democratic process is doomed to failure.”write their experts.
“Key areas”
Since the launch of a series of offensives by a coalition of ethnic armed groups in late 2023 in Shan State and Kachin State in the north-east of the country on the border with China, and in Rakhine State, on the other hand, along the Bay of Bengal and the border with Bangladesh, the balance of power has shifted in these key areas for the exploitation of natural and energy resources.
Meanwhile, the central region of Sagaing, which stretches from Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city, to the Indian border, is also affected. In July, the armed opposition seized Mogok, the admittedly partially depleted “valley of rubies”, 190 kilometres north of Mandalay. In August, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Kachin rebels, captured forts near the Hpakant jade mines in Kachin State.
You have 64.92% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
