This week, markets stopped fearing that things would get worse in the Middle East. Oil prices have fallen and are being held back by rumors that Iran could now deal another blow to Israel, from Iraq. With gas it turned out to be more radical. New rumors that Ukrainian transit of Russian gas will continue have reduced fuel prices in Europe. The markets are still governed by rumors, news and traders who play short or vice versa.
Oil
However, Israel counterattacked Iran. But because it turned out to be “quiet” and did not affect the oil and gas infrastructure, the market exhaled and the price of oil fell, five dollars a barrel. On October 29, quotes for the North Sea benchmark Brent fell to $70.8.
Everything would have continued like this if talks had not started about a new retaliatory attack by Iran. Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraq in the coming days, possibly before the US presidential election on November 5, Axios reported, citing Israeli sources.
They said the retaliatory strike would involve the use of large numbers of drones and ballistic missiles, and that carrying out the attack with the help of pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Tehran to prevent another Israeli attack on Iran.
“This once again puts on the table the possibility that Israel could make another attempt to attack Iran,” — a senior analyst at Price Futures Group told Reuters Phil Flynn.
Oil prices were also supported by rumors that OPEC+ could again postpone the start of an oil production increase, which was previously postponed until December, and statistics from China, where government stimulus measures are taking effect.
On Friday, quotes had recovered to $73.4.
Gas
New rumors about the possibility of expanding Russian gas transit through Ukraine have brought gas prices in Europe down to September levels. During the week, gas supply for the next month from the Dutch TTF hub fell 11% to $438 per thousand cubic meters.
At first, one of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, warned of the risks of lower prices if the transit stop scenario does not work.
“Any deviation from the status quo will mean higher supplies from Russia against consensus and therefore more bearish global gas prices.” — wrote the analyst Samantha Dardo.
The US investment bank’s forecast was supported by Bloomberg information that companies in Hungary and Slovakia are about to sign a contract for 12,000-14,000 million cubic meters of gas per year from Azerbaijan, which will pass through Russia and Ukraine .
The main driver of the negotiations, the Slovak SPP, did not confirm, however, the proximity of the agreement, but this has not yet affected prices.
But along with gas prices, coal prices also fell. Coal supplies from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA) hub during the month returned to the levels of two weeks ago: around $119 per ton. The decrease for the week was $2.
