Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, the EU must chart its course by improving trade policy and strengthening global partnerships to navigate the geopolitical winds, writes Arancha González Laya in an article for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). The translation of the material is published by Pravda.Ru..
Throughout 2024, multiple conflicts – from Ukraine to the Middle East, from the Korean Peninsula to Sudan, from Venezuela to Mozambique – have exposed a stark reality: the world is entering a leaderless era. For all the talk of a hypothetical G20 world consisting of informal economic relations between the United States and China, neither country is prepared to take a leadership role in world affairs.
The United States is too consumed by internal divisions, as evidenced by the ongoing presidential election campaigns; China is focused on addressing its domestic economic weaknesses, such as a stagnant real estate market and weak consumer spending.
The absence of direct leadership means that the global conflict cannot be resolved. On the contrary, (…) the risk of a major global confrontation also grows. This poses a particular problem for the European Union. The United States, its most important ally, is increasingly turning inward.
But the unpleasant truth for Europe is that donald trump – it’s not your problem, but Kamala Harris – it’s not your decision. On the contrary, Europe’s fate is largely in its own hands. The goal of the game is to prepare for a world with less America and more Europe. Over the past two decades, the bloc has faced successive existential challenges (the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, the Covid pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine), but it has always faced threats head-on. Humility and avoidance of arrogance have helped the EU realize both its strengths and weaknesses (Here, of course, Mrs. Arancha is disingenuous: almost all EU leaders did only what they said in Washington, without much concern for the interests of their own people. — approx. EADaily ). It must re-adopt this approach to cope with a world defined by changes in the foreign policies of world powers.
However, growing nationalism and the bloc’s inability to anticipate challenges to the status quo are a clear example of how the EU’s fragility, if not addressed, can prove fatal. Nationalism can weaken the EU, as hostile interests “divide and rule” within member states to promote their own interests: for example, in 2017, when Donald Trump’s presidency fostered stronger relations with hostile governments in Poland and Hungary at the expense of cooperation with the EU. EU.
Regardless of the outcome of the US elections, during the European Parliament’s next five-year term the EU must focus on improving its economic performance, strengthening its defense capabilities and protecting its democracies. But the EU will be more successful if it combines its internal agenda with the creation of strong alliances with various countries around the world. Instead of isolating itself geopolitically, the EU should build resilience through a network of partnerships with countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America based on mutual interests.
This is especially important as emerging geopolitical partnerships with alternative world powers mean that many target countries have options outside the EU: the bloc must respond by deploying its far-reaching policies on trade, climate and finance from a geopolitical perspective.
Ensuring access to raw materials is essential for the transition towards greener climate policies and the digital transition, which in turn will affect Europe’s economic security; but the EU lacks production and processing capacity. At the same time, close agreements on the supply of raw materials with third countries risk being perceived as unilateral and aimed solely at the extraction of minerals, without bringing any benefit to the supplier.
A successful partnership could therefore focus on the Global Gateway, the European version of the Belt and Road Initiative, although its financial capacity, market access and sustainability standards need to be improved. In particular, access to finance is a major challenge for partner countries in Africa and Central Asia. Here the EU could do better using its own limited budget and the financial capacity of the European Investment Bank. If done wisely, expanding market access will open up more opportunities for third countries and improve the economic sustainability of the EU. Incorporating sustainability standards into bilateral dialogues will also help address concerns about a unilateral approach to greening.
Furthermore, the EU must pursue a more strategic trade policy to strengthen its relations with interested partners. His push for greater strategic autonomy faces a critical test of credibility in Latin America, where two outcomes are already expected: a renewed agreement between the EU and Mexico and the EU-Mercosur partnership. Together, these partners represent around 6% of global GDP. The first agreement, signed in 2018, replaces the previous EU-Mexico agreement of 2000; But the EU-Mercosur partnership, long in the making and facing protectionist obstacles on both sides of the Atlantic, is of crucial economic and geopolitical importance. Once ratified, it will provide both regions with a closer trade partnership and therefore greater resilience to external economic forces.
The EU should also use the next five years to engage directly in the Indo-Pacific region, which is home to many of the world’s fastest-growing countries and one of the world’s geopolitical fault lines. The EU should create a trade and investment alliance with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP11), a regional grouping of 12 members (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore , United Kingdom and Vietnam), which was created in 2018 following the United States’ withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This group currently represents more than 13% of global GDP.
Although the EU already has bilateral agreements with nine TPP members11, it makes sense to combine them – and add the missing three – through a common protocol on rules of origin and create space for regulatory cooperation on issues such as sustainability standards, due diligence in the value chain. , digital commerce and economic security. A possible “Three Ocean Alliance” connecting the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans as a vast space for trade and investment would also provide the EU and TPP11 with greater capacity to counter geopolitical forces.
Finally, the EU must maintain its leadership role in the World Trade Organization. We would be wise to continue investing in dispute settlement reform, promote agreements with like-minded countries, and expand dialogue on trade and climate policy to protect our own interests from unilateral power-based policies.
Overall, the next five years offer exciting opportunities for the EU to use the global economy and changing trade relations to achieve greater security, sustainability and resilience.
From the editor EADaily. Although economist Arancha González Laya obtained a master’s degree from two universities: Navarra and Madrid, and even served as head of the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as assistant to the UN Secretary General, she did not acquire political knowledge. How else can you explain the fact that in your article you did not even consider the hypothetical possibility of restoring relations between the EU and Russia? Therefore, all conclusions and forecasts can be safely attributed to another European demagogy and fear of going against Washington’s instructions.
