In Guinea, the authoritarian and presidential temptations of the coup general Mamadi Doumbouya

Under a sky preserved from the last winter rains, Conakry has entrenched itself. Almost 3,000 soldiers and dozens of military vehicles go up the “Le Prince” highway before entering the esplanade of September 28. This October 2, the day of celebration of Guinea’s independence and the military parade, General Mamadi Doumbouya, sitting next to his wife, former gendarme of Drôme, preferred an elegant white boubou to the appearance uniform. Behind him, accredited ambassadors and high dignitaries of the regime witness the army’s show of force.

Three years after overthrowing President Alpha Condé, the former foreign legion corporal went from “president of the transition” has “President of the Republic” in official communications. He has adapted to his role and seems to enjoy it.

The night of his coup d’état, September 5, 2021, flanked by eight elements of the special forces, he appeared on the national television news set to announce the arrest of the head of state, at the end of a morning. of confrontations. Since then, Alpha Condé went into exile in Türkiye.

In front of the camera, Mamadi Doumbouya denounced the corruption of the fallen regime, before concluding with a confusing metaphor: “Guinea is beautiful. We don’t need to rape her anymore. We just have to make love to her. » This was followed by the dissolution of the institutions, replaced by the National Action Committee for Development (CNRD), which he himself directed. Political figures, such as senior official Mohamed Beavogui, appointed prime minister, supported the “correction” in progress.

“His candidacy is obvious”

The third military regime in the history of Guinea began under favorable auspices. With the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the subregional organization then inflexible with the Malian coup plotters, friction will be temporary. Mamadi Doumbouya has never stopped balancing his initial promises and his apparent future temptations.

He undertakes to restore constitutional order before December 31, 2024 and not to stand in future elections. But the oath recedes as the date approaches. The interested party has not commented, but on his side the mood is increasing. “His candidacy is obvious, It has already been announced by Ousmane Gaoual Diallo, government spokesperson. We need your rigor to continue with the reforms. The other candidates can never be the majority. Coalitions mean instability. Coups like this have been taking place since 1958…”

“If he goes there, he will pose a major risk to the stability of all of West Africa. The judges, for their part, are Issaka Souaré, from the Institute of Security Studies (ISS). The message sent would be that a soldier can commit a coup d’état and then go to elections. Other officers could try the same. ECOWAS would have even more difficulty enforcing democratic laws in the region”. At the moment neither the general population census nor the revision of the electoral roll has begun.

In the name of stability, Doumbouya imposes an authoritarian imprint. In Conakry, on the main arteries of the city, his uniformed portrait is everywhere. Presented as “quiet but hardworking” In the posters dedicated to his glory, the Guinean leader cultivates a curious paradox. He saturates the public space but takes refuge in his palace.

Liberticidal acts

Located on the Kaloum peninsula, south of Conakry, Mohammed V’s palace is protected by heavily armed guards, whose number increases every month. “The president has retired, says a local regular. Some ministers have not met with him for weeks. » “He fears being overthrown but is far from being disconnected from what is happening,” Add another source.

One event, on Thursday, September 26, reflected the environmental excitement. According to local residents, panic gripped Conakry after unexplained gunshots were fired near the presidency. In a few minutes the city center was emptied and the special forces cordoned off the streets. The presidency denounced “crazy rumors.”

In recent months, the junta has increased its repressive acts. Media closed, demonstrations repressed (at least 47 dead according to Amnesty International between September 2021 and May 2024), opponents imprisoned or forced into exile… The ranks of disgraced officers were hit by a mysterious massacre. On September 25, the body of Colonel Bilivogui, who had been missing for a year, was returned to his widow, without the cause of his death being given. He was arrested after the resounding escape of four soldiers judged for the massacre of more than 150 people in 2009.

This suspicious death is added to that of Sadiba Koulibaly, head of State of the Armed Forces from 2021 to 2023, who died in custody a week after his sentence, on June 15, to five years in prison for “ desertion and illegal possession of weapons “.

international indulgence

The list of funerals grew with the death in detention on September 26 of the head of the pediatric department at Kankan hospital, Doumbouya’s stronghold. Mohamed Dioubaté was suspected of setting fire to a portrait of the junta leader hoisted on a roundabout in the city. On October 2, during the unveiling of a statue of Mr. Doumbouya, the region’s prefect warned those who would deface the monument. “ “If we catch just one person, they will suffer the same fate as the rest.” threatened Kandja Mara in front of the press.

“Even as it denies responsibility for these deaths, the junta sends a clear message. If you stand up to us, you will pay, reports a journalist on condition of anonymity. In my editorial team we no longer deal with sensitive topics in order to continue existing. Even under Alpha Condé, it was not that dangerous. »

The signs of the regime’s hardening are evident, but Mamadi Doumbouya can still count on international indulgence. If he punished from the United Nations podium in 2023 the “ hypocrisy » Westerners « lesson givers » democratic, the indulgence towards him is constant.

Courted by Moscow (Sergei Lavrov approved in June in Conakry the training of more Guinean officers in anti-terrorist matters in Russian academies), Mamadi Doumbouya is an ally worth keeping for France. To strengthen its arsenal, the junta it leads can count in particular on the military collaboration of its former comrades-in-arms.

“Denial of democracy”

And French diplomacy shows great public discretion regarding the brutality of the Guinean regime. When two activists from the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (FNDC), staunch opponents of the junta, were kidnapped by the military, Paris said nothing, unlike the United States, which condemned their kidnapping. Since July, Oumar Syllah and Billoh Bah have been missing.

“These kidnappings are an absurd political error after the success of the trial on September 28” a French source bothers. Several foreign ministries communicated this to the Guinean authorities without making it public. France does not have to pronounce on the political options of Guineans in the name of the principle of sovereignty. »

This tolerance is all the more marked since the Doumbouya regime refused to join the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), the organization formed by the ruling junta in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, close to Moscow. “There are certainly no Wagner mercenaries in Guinea, but the denial of democracy is more dangerous. complaint Cellou Baldé, representative in the Labé region (north) of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea, whose leader, Cellou Dallein Diallo, went into exile, like other opponents. It is not desirable for our partners to sign colossal contracts with a board that has no legitimacy. If it continues beyond December 31, the economic outlook looks very bleak. »

Mining companies operating in Guinea understand this risk well. During the recent China-Africa forum, Beijing expressed behind the scenes its fear for the preservation of its interests. In January, around fifteen foreign diplomats expressed their concern to the Minister of Foreign Affairs about restrictions on Internet access. For three months the connection was cut due to a “ affair » security according to the authorities. “The pressure from the miners is undoubtedly the most important for the regime. Bauxite provides the majority of state revenue. Without its exploitation, it can no longer guarantee its budget and its survival.” says an expert in the sector.

The army, the main threat to the regime

To legitimize his power, Mamadi Doumbouya will sooner or later have to go through elections. To this end, its allies highlight its track record.” positive »: universal medical coverage for retired civil servants, care for pregnant women, funds for the indigent, construction of roads, etc. In a country where the average salary is around 40 euros, these reforms would aim to alleviate great poverty, without us still being able to measure their fruits. The government also highlights the draft Constitution that limits the number of presidential terms to two. A safeguard according to its editors against any authoritarian drift.

“It is an innovative text because, from now on, a president who commits repetitive violations of human rights can be prosecuted for high treason,” explains Dansa Kourouma, a former human rights activist who became president of the CNT, the Provisional Assembly.

The main threat to the Guinean military regime continues to be that which comes from its army. The tensions of recent months have revealed friction within the special forces, the unit he commanded before the coup and which now protects him.

Fifteen years after the massacre of September 28, 2009, in which protesters who opposed the candidacy of another coup plotter, Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, were murdered, Guinea holds its breath and wonders: Will Mamadi Doumbouya continue… Will it be the path of the capricious captain sentenced to twenty years in prison or that of his successor, the placid General Sékouba Konaté, who organized the elections and allowed the arrival of a civilian president? At the moment, no one imposes a roadmap on it.