In Morocco, the welcome return to power of “ally” Donald Trump

“ Donald Trump, the president who recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara [occidental], announces his return to the White House “. Like the online newspaper le360Known for its proximity to the royal palace, the Moroccan press widely celebrated the victory of the real estate magnate, elected after the US presidential elections on Tuesday, November 5. 47^my The president of the United States is a leading ally », this is how the newspaper judges Opinion. Early on Wednesday afternoon, King Mohammed VI sent him a congratulatory message.

In the newspapers and among Moroccan commentators, no one has forgotten the role played in 2020 by Donald Trump in the Western Sahara issue, considered by Rabat as “included” territorial integrity » from Morocco. On December 10 of this year, a few weeks before the end of his first term, the tenant of the White House announced on Twitter (now X) that he had “ signed a proclamation recognizing Moroccan sovereignty » in this territory, described as “ not autonomous » by the United Nations.

The same day, during a telephone conversation between the two Heads of State, Mohammed VI thanked Mr. Trump, assuring him “ your deep gratitude for this historic position “In return, Morocco highlighted the resumption of its official relations with Israel.

A month later, the US ambassador in Rabat headed to the Western Sahara city of Dakhla – a first for a US diplomat of this rank – to launch “ the official process of opening a consulate » in the company of the Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs. But the arrival of Joe Biden to the White House on January 20, 2021 stopped the project. Without doubting the proclamation of his predecessor, the administration of the democratic president never materialized the installation of a US diplomatic representation in Western Sahara. Contacted by the worldThe State Department indicated in December 2023 that “there was no no announcement to make » about this.

“I hope he finishes what he started”

This demonstrates to what extent the re-election of Donald Trump was expected in the country, in a conflict whose resolution is the number one objective of Moroccan foreign policy. “ I hope he finishes what he started, that is, opening an American consulate in Dakhla or Laayoune. », testifies Hassan Alaoui, director of the newspaper Morocco diplomatwhich says “ relieved » of the result of the American elections and convinced that “ Democrats, unlike Republicans, have never strongly supported Morocco in the Sahara [occidental] “.

The consequences of Trump’s return to the White House, whose unpredictability was one of the dominant features during his first term, nevertheless seem very uncertain for the kingdom, even if they are ” Its aversion to multilateralism is likely to offer a window for Morocco to reach a solution in Western Sahara along Rabat lines. », says Intissar Fakir, director of the North Africa and Sahel program at the American think tank Middle East Institute.

According to her, it is possible that Donald Trump will take action again “ heterodox » and transactional that will go beyond the UN framework, since the president-elect never stopped criticizing the ineffectiveness of the international organization.

However, many observers believe that Morocco will not be a priority for Donald Trump, as it would have been if his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, had been elected. His diplomatic agenda will focus mainly on the war in the Gaza Strip, which he has repeated that he wants to end.

His desire for peace in the Middle East, which he had raised during his campaign with Arab-American voters, could therefore involve restarting the Abraham Accords process. Negotiated and orchestrated by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner – then a senior advisor to the US president -, they led in 2020 to the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Morocco. If it is restarted, Rabat could be encouraged to support the resumption of this plan.

A strategic role between the United States and China

Beyond the bilateral relationship, Morocco will also closely examine the planned development of relations between Washington and Beijing. Donald Trump, who seeks to reduce US dependence on critical materials from China essential for the manufacture of electric vehicles, could be forced to modify the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), US analysts believe.

If so, the 400 billion dollars (372 billion euros) of spending under this plan, voted during the Biden administration and aimed at decarbonizing the US economy, would be subject to additional restrictions, which would have consequences on the amount of taxes. . credits for electric vehicles, as well as on the conditions of access to these credits for components manufactured abroad.

However, Morocco is mainly concerned about the IRA, which depends, among other things, on supplies from friendly countries or countries linked by free trade agreements with the United States, as has happened in Rabat since 2004. This explains why large companies Chinese companies, specialized in the manufacture of batteries or electrical cathodes, have announced that they want to invest up to 10 billion euros in the kingdom to maintain their access to the American market. In January, the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies described this Chinese industrial strategy as an attempt to circumvent the IRA by taking advantage of “ friend shoring » (“trade between friendly countries”). An approach that could well be undermined should Donald Trump review this plan.