The major exporting economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) largely capitalized on Trump’s tough stance toward China during his first term. Customs taxes and then restrictions on the supply of high-tech components to China, backed by the Biden administration, have favored quick and viable alternatives to Chinese production in these low-cost countries, a strategy known as “China +1” .
By promising during his campaign customs duties of 60% for Chinese products and 10% for others, will the American president-elect further accelerate this phenomenon of relocation to the benefit of Southeast Asia? Or aren’t Southeast Asia’s most successful exporters likely to be in the same basket as China? The issue is a cause for concern in Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Bangkok, but perhaps nowhere more than in Hanoi.
Champion of growth in Southeast Asia, Vietnam has been one of the great beneficiaries of the diversification of electronic equipment manufacturers outside China: the South Korean Samsung, the Taiwanese Foxconn and the American Intel have invested billions in telephony and electronic components , who have become the leaders of Vietnam. main export destination.
“Populist rhetoric”
As a result, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States increased from 38.3 billion dollars (36.4 billion euros) in 2017, at the beginning of Donald Trump’s first term, to 105 billion in 2023 (99.9 billion euros) – and 96 billion (91,350 million euros) in 2023. euros) only during the first nine months of 2024. “Vietnam, with its growing industrial capacity, is in a prime position to continue welcoming relocations. [en provenance de Chine] “, writes Marco Förster, an analyst at Hanoi-based Dezan Shira & Associates, in a recent note.
“But if Trump’s populist rhetoric and protectionist policies begin to target Vietnamese exports, in the same way they did with Mexico and the European Union during his campaign, this opportunity could quickly transform into a major vulnerability.”continue. Vietnam ranks fourth in trade deficits recorded by the United States, behind those of Mexico, the European Union and, finally, “champion” China.
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