Fifteen years ago he already warned: the United States would undoubtedly go through strong political turbulence in the 2020s. He was right. The anthropologist and professor at the University of Connecticut (United States), Peter Turchin, has accumulated data on ten thousand years of history and 700 societies, from ancient Egypt to modern America, to build a model that allows identifying the constants observed in the prosperity and then the collapse of political regimes and States.
at work The Chaos that comes. Elites, counter-elites and the path to political disintegration (Le Cherche Midi, 448 pages, 23 euros), shows that great crises occur when several dynamics combine: the excessive enrichment of the richest, the impoverishment of the working classes and the appearance of a supernumerary elite that is torn apart by the power. . There are so many forces at work in the United States since the 1970s and, to a lesser extent, in Europe.
Donald Trump won the presidential elections on November 5, 2024 thanks to the discontent of a large part of Americans. What is the origin of the crisis facing the United States?
It has deep historical roots, linked to what I call the “wealth bomb.” In the 1920s, the United States was in crisis. This was solved by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal. [élu en 1932]that established an implicit social contract that balanced the interests of companies and workers. The latter were able to unionize and organize to defend their rights. The numerous reforms of the time, including heavy taxation of high incomes, also allowed the country to experience a period of declining inequalities and unprecedented prosperity, particularly after World War II.
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However, this social contract deteriorated in the late 1970s, when a new generation of elites, who had not known the 1920s, came to power with the Reagan administration. This repressed labor movements and reduced taxes on the richest. Wages began to decline in relation to growth, while the proportion of income captured by the richest increased: the “wealth bomb” was set in motion. The number of super-rich who own at least 10 million dollars [9,6 millions d’euros, au cours actuel]Thus, it increased from 66,000 in 1983 to 693,000 in 2019. Inequalities have increased and, with them, discontent.
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