The INE (National Institute of Statistics) has once again corrected this Wednesday the economic growth of our country. Between 2021 and 2023, it added almost 77 billion to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at current prices compared to its latest calculations, confirming a historical review, after underestimating for years the recovery after the extraordinary shocks of COVID and the inflationary crisis.
If we look at the evolution of growth rates, in 2023, the progression of real GDP was 2.7% compared to the 2.5% previously estimated. Two tenths more. “GDP volume growth in 2022 is revised upwards by four tenths, to 6.2%. And the variation corresponding to the year 2021 is revised upwards by three tenths, to 6.7%”, details the INE in the press release. Nine tenths more in total.
“These revisions of the national accounts series for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023 lead to an estimate of annual GDP at current prices of 1,498,324 million euros in 2023,” continues the INE.
The extraordinary revision of national accounting in Spain, on September 18, is taking place throughout the European Union (EU). The Community statistical calendar provides for this in-depth adjustment every four years, and the INE has made it coincide with the annual balance sheet, which takes place every September, with the exception of other quarterly adjustments. In recent years, little by little, the organization has accepted its errors in measuring GDP since 2020, until discovering the largest imbalance in its history. In September 2023, the upward revision is 1.3 points in total from 2020 to 2022.
“In short, the review carried out by the INE, which corresponds to the periodic reviews previously established with Eurostat [el servicio de estadística de la UE]”This Wednesday also brings good economic news, as our economy has grown more significantly in recent years and we continue to lead in economic growth among the main countries in the Eurozone,” the Ministry of Economy defends.
The new data show that the growth of the Spanish economy is “stronger, more balanced and more responsible”. They also show that it has been driven by domestic demand. [el consumo de las familias y el gasto público]the strength of the labor market, with a greater contribution from investment and the maintenance of the positive contribution of the foreign sector.
Undoubtedly, in this period, the INE has faced “an unprecedented scenario” after the hibernation of activity due to COVID and the intense rebound that followed, which has supported an equally unprecedented public protection of the income of families and businesses, thanks to the various measures deployed by the coalition government. But the magnitude of the statistical errors far exceeds what may seem to be a simple technical problem.
The INE’s inaccuracies have conditioned the economic narrative of the electoral campaign for the general elections in the summer of 2023, or the progress of the economy after the worst health crisis in a century. They have favored the questioning of progressive policies or have distorted the figures for the deficit, debt, budgetary pressure or pension expenditure, in relation to which the general state budgets (PGE) are built or on which the budgetary rules of the European Union (EU) depend. and are always calculated in relation to GDP.
For example, after the latest revision of the INE, “we are one year ahead of our target for the debt-to-GDP ratio, reducing it by almost three more points in 2023 to 105%,” the Ministry of Economy states. “This is achieved thanks to economic growth, control of public spending, increased income and the dynamism of the labor market,” they continue.
Since the end of 2021, experts and journalists from elDiario.es have highlighted the inconsistencies between GDP and National Accounts data and other statistical sources, such as the profits registered by companies to the tax authorities, salaries or hours worked. They have even identified a “negative fraud” in VAT, that is, more taxes have been paid than have been consumed, according to the National Accounts.
At the beginning of this September, without prior notice, the agency carried out its penultimate adjustment of the National Accounts and admitted a discrepancy of 32,480 million euros in the 2021 GDP alone – in total, about three points more in nominal terms than had been predicted. not calculated correctly -, in anticipation of the important update this Wednesday.
“The underestimation of GDP has allowed some interested voices to invent in recent years the idea that in 2023 our country was the only economy in the EU that had not recovered its pre-pandemic GDP level. But it was clear from the rest of the macroeconomic indicators that this was not the case,” he laments. The Popular Party (PP) has reiterated that Spain is at the end of the recovery.
