Iran used missiles twice as fast as in April in its attack and cost Israel millions of dollars in air defense

Iran’s decision to launch some 180 high-speed ballistic missiles against Israel on Tuesday indicates that Tehran was seeking to inflict serious damage, unlike April’s drone and missile attack, which was conveniently preempted at the advance.

The enormous speed of these ballistic missiles makes them difficult to intercept. Despite this, and even if some missiles or fragments appear to have landed, initial information suggests an Iranian military failure, with only one death in the occupied West Bank and none in Israel.

The Emad and Ghadr missiles launched by Tehran in April travel at speeds six times the speed of sound, with an estimated flight time of 12 minutes from Iran. Or around 7,400 kilometers per hour. But Iran claims to have this time launched the Fatteh-2, even faster, whose maximum speed is estimated at around 16,000 kilometers per hour.

Two and a half years ago, the United States estimated that Iran’s arsenal could include around 3,000 ballistic missiles (the current figure could be higher). Tehran would perhaps have wanted to preserve most of this arsenal, anticipating the possible escalation of a conflict which could turn into a real war.

Firing so many ballistic missiles in a matter of minutes is also a serious attempt to overwhelm or exhaust Israel’s air defenses. Israel’s sophisticated interceptor missiles are expensive and it is unclear how many there are.

Stopping ballistic missiles in flight mainly corresponds to the Arrow 3 and Arrow 2, long-range systems developed by Israel and the United States. They were first used during the war between Israel and Hamas and are supported by David’s Sling, as the medium-range interception system is called. The better-known Iron Dome is used for short-range interceptions, usually of rockets fired from Gaza by Hamas.

A former financial adviser to the Israeli army chief of staff said in April that each Arrow missile cost $3.5 million. [unos 3,16 millones de euros]; and David’s Honda interceptor missiles cost $1 million [unos 900.000 euros]. Intercepting a hundred missiles would easily cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Each missile will have cost Iran £80,000 or more [unos 96.000 euros].

Tehran Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that in April his government warned neighboring countries 72 hours in advance of an attack that came 15 days after Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus. This time, Iran reacted a few days after Israel killed Hasan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, on Friday.

Reports that an attack would take place on Tuesday began circulating among US officials hours before the missile launch. It is unclear how the information was obtained, but possibilities include satellite imagery, interception of communications or diplomatic notification. There are unconfirmed reports that Iran warned Russia before the attack.

It is unclear how many Iranian missiles landed Tuesday evening. In the April attack, only 9 of the 120 ballistic missiles fired by Iran successfully hit their target, causing minor damage to two air bases. In strictly military terms, this means that this attack was also a failure.

Between drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, Iran used more than 300 projectiles in April. This Tuesday, he gave up on drones, perhaps considered ineffective due to their slowness in the face of the adversary’s sophisticated air defense system. Iran may not have used cruise missiles in the latest attack either.

Shahed drones, widely used by Russia in Ukraine, are relatively slow and easily shot down by fighter jets. Cruise missiles use their maneuverability to evade air defenses, but compared to ballistic missiles they are also slow: the speed of Iran’s Paveh cruise missile is around 800 kilometers per hour.

Under relentless attacks from Russian missiles and drones since the start of the large-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine published its own interception rates in August. The success rate is lower than Israel’s, in part because the longer duration of the war has left the country without several types of short-range interceptor missiles.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that they had intercepted 63% of Russian drones and 67% of Russian cruise missiles. Regarding ballistic missiles, the percentage fell to 4.5%.

Translation of Francisco de Zárate