Benny Sabti, an Iranian researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), was interviewed this morning on 103FM. Sabti discussed rumors about the possible assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ismail Qaani and the economic situation in Iran, which plays a more important role in the conflict than we think.
In his opening remarks, Sabti addressed the dynamics of the response between Israel and Iran. He noted the possibility that Iran could take action in response to the Israeli attacks: “The last half hour suggests that Iran’s National Security Council has said that if Israel responds, there will be a third missile operation. Behind these words they understand that “Israel is resilient and will respond harshly, which was not the case last time.”
He highlighted: “The problem with the Iranians is that they don’t take hints. Like Hezbollah and Nasrallah, they fall into arrogance and think: “What kind of state is this compared to us? We are eighty times bigger.”
Economic problems
Regarding the economic situation in Iran amid the ongoing conflict, Sabti said: “Iranians are eating into their savings. “They spent between 15% and 20% and the State cannot run out of missiles in the event of a real crisis.” He noted the significant difficulties posed by maintaining long-range missiles and explained: “Their numbers are decreasing. They cannot withstand such loads for long. This attack cost them $2.3 billion for 180 missiles. For Iran, it is like a month’s budget and they have no way to make up for it.”
Sabti continued: “Iran’s oil facilities are fifty years old and the energy system is collapsing. Why bother with something that no longer works? I think there is some fog here and our state has other plans. We are in a completely different place “.
He further explained: “I am referring to the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, which is a thorn in the side of both us and the Iranian people. “If action is taken against them, it will affect the military wing, as well as the leaders of Hezbollah.” “They have no real political wing; it is mainly military and terrorist. If we go against them, we can disrupt the operations and control of the missiles and the nuclear program.”
Rumors about Kaani’s liquidation
Regarding rumors about Qaani’s assassination in Beirut, Sabti said: “Qaani is most likely alive, otherwise we would have seen a strong Iranian reaction. Maybe they have fallen into a state of romanticism and are hiding. Judging “Because of its operational signals and the weapons sent to Lebanon and returned from there, everything works there. If it were not there, we would see a different reaction.”
He concluded: “Many jokes and memes are circulating in Iran right now. They say we have not eliminated the prayer leaders because the front row is made up of Israeli spies. This is what you should keep in mind. There were rounds of investigations and dismissals. The intelligence chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been fired for failures in its attacks in Türkiye. “The more incompetent people are appointed to replace those fired, the more we weaken Iran.”
Cursor previously wrote that Hezbollah is considering a new candidate for the leadership position.
