An in-depth analysis published in the Financial Times shows that the operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities will be one of the most difficult military challenges Israel has ever faced. The chances of success are low without significant American support.
Following Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel last Tuesday, there are voices in Israel calling for a decisive military response. This includes the possibility of attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the Financial Times report highlights that such a mission would be extremely difficult.
US President Joe Biden made his position clear this week on the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. When asked if he would support such action, he responded simply: “The answer is no.” This statement poses a major obstacle to any Israeli plan for unilateral action. Without American support, the risks and problems increase significantly.
Attacking Iranian nuclear facilities presents a number of complex logistical challenges for the Israeli Air Force. The first problem is the enormous distance. The distance between Israel and Iran’s nuclear facilities exceeds 1,000 kilometers. The flight will require crossing the airspace of several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and possibly Turkey. Each of these countries could detect Israeli aircraft and alert Iran, giving it the opportunity to prepare its defense systems.
The second problem is fuel. The long flight to and from targets will require full use of in-flight refueling capabilities. According to a Congressional Research Service report, there will be little to no room for errors or unexpected delays. A small technical breakdown or a change in climate can threaten the entire operation and the lives of the pilots.
Another problem is countering Iranian air defense systems. Iranian nuclear facilities are well protected by modern air defense systems. To overcome these defenses, Israeli bombers would need close fighter escort. The US report estimates that such an operation would require about 100 aircraft, almost a third of the total strength of the Israeli Air Force. This is a significant number of aircraft for a single operation, which will leave Israel vulnerable to counterattacks.
Even if the Israeli planes manage to hit their targets, they will face another enormous challenge: destroying the targets themselves. Iran’s two uranium enrichment plants are well protected. The Natanz plant is reportedly located deep underground and protected by layers of rock and reinforced concrete, while the Fordow plant is dug into the mountain, making it even more difficult to reach. To destroy these objects, you will need special ammunition capable of passing through tens of meters of earth and concrete before exploding. Although Israel has bombs capable of penetrating cover, they may not be sufficient for such a difficult task.
Experts believe that the only conventional weapon capable of performing this task is the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). It is a giant guided bomb, 6 meters long and weighing 14 tons, capable of penetrating 60 meters of the ground before exploding. However, it is still unclear whether Israel has access to these weapons or the ability to use them.
The central question is whether Israel has the capabilities necessary to carry out an operation of this scale. There are several doubts about this. First, it is unclear whether Israel has bombs with penetration capabilities similar to American MOPs. Furthermore, even if Israel could obtain MOP bombs, its current fighter jets (F-15, F-16 and F-35) are not capable of carrying them due to their size and weight. Ehud Olmert, a former Defense Department researcher, maintains that there is “no chance” that Israel could acquire a US strategic bomber like the B-2 Spirit, needed to deliver such heavy bombs.
Lacking the ability to completely destroy the sites, Israel can consider alternative options, but they are limited. Israel may attempt to disrupt the facilities through covert actions and cyberattacks, as has been demonstrated in the past. In 2010, Israel and the United States allegedly managed to stop Iran’s nuclear program using the Stuxnet virus. In 2021, planned blackouts affected the Natanz national power grid, but these actions failed to stop the Iranian program.
Taking into account all the challenges and limitations, the experts come to a clear conclusion. The scale of force needed to significantly damage Iran’s major nuclear facilities “will require broad US support, if not direct involvement,” according to Daria Dolzikova and Matthew Sabeel of the RUSI research institute. And even with that support, “there is no guarantee of complete destruction” of the Iranian nuclear program.
Without significant American support, Israel’s options are very limited. A solo attack would involve enormous risks, little chance of success, and a real risk of dangerous regional escalation. It appears that Israel will have to carefully consider its next steps, recognizing that a quick and effective military solution to the Iranian nuclear problem is not in sight.
Cursor previously wrote that Trump said how Israel should respond to Iran.
