The return to normal is still very far from being achieved in the 15 municipalities of Valencia most devastated by the floods of October 29. This is reflected in a CaixaBank Research Report which reflects the impact on family spending in affected areas, revealing that In the group of 60 other least affected localities, a rebound is already seen.
The bank’s research department includes in its report both the sharp drop in household repayments in these localities, that the week after DANA is 65% less than the previous periodas in credit card spending, which is 73% lower.
Slightly better data than those recorded in the days following the floods, when card spending fell by 83% and refunds by 82%, but reveal how complicated it is to resume economic activity in these areas where stores and all types of businesses have disappeared.
The contrast and difference with the other municipalities concerned are the best example. According to CaixaBank Research, in all of the 60 other municipalities affected From the second week, the volume of spending and reimbursements by card already exceeds the period before DANAwith an increase of 5% and 15% respectively. In both cases they had decreased slightly during the first days, but they had not flowed like in areas like Paiporta, Sedaví, Picanya or Utiel.
Commerce, the worst
Another relevant data provided by the report is that in the second week after DANA the majority of commerce in these 15 municipalities remains closed. Based on internal bank data such as POS operations, The figure is almost 70% for those who remain inactive in the zero pointin addition to being the sector most affected by the drop in face-to-face spending: about 90% less the week after DANA.
In this activity-based analysis, it is followed by leisure and hospitality with a drop in spending of around 85% and even in essential products, the collapse exceeds 55%.
The improvement in the 60 other Valencian municipalities affected to a lesser extent also contrasts, since in this case In the second week, trade was above pre-disaster levels. In these populations, they are transportation and gas station sectors, as well as hospitality and leisurethose who They are at lower levels, between 15% and 10% below before the natural phenomenon.
Impact on GDP
The director of planning and strategic studies of CaixaBank, Enric Fernández, emphasized on Tuesday, during the presentation of the entity’s strategic plan, that he believed that its impact could “subtract one or two tenths of GDP from the Spanish economy as a whole” in the fourth quarter of this year. As he pointed out, this does not jeopardize our growth forecast of 2.8 for the year, since the actual data already published by the INE for the third quarter was higher than what they had predicted.
Regarding next year, he assured that we will still need to know the details of the reconstruction plans, aid and investments planned for the years to come.
