October 7 was not just the attack perpetrated by Hamas. October 7 was not only the killing of nearly 1,400 people and the kidnapping of 256 people. October 7 was the start of a new Arab-Israeli war coordinated from Beirut and led by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. Since April 2023, the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad have met several times in Beirut with Nasrallah to coordinate their attack on Israel.
These meetings intensified in August due to ongoing negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize diplomatic relations.
Indeed, the green light for the Al Aqsa flooding operation was given by Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who, after meeting his Saudi counterpart in Riyadh, traveled to Beirut to tell Sheikh Nasrallah that Riyadh’s approach to Jerusalem must be stopped. At that time, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran were moving to launch the Fifth Arab-Israeli War, a war that does not only focus on Gaza, but includes three other scenarios: Yemen, Lebanon and ‘Iran.
The elimination of the leadership of Hezbollah in general and of Sheikh Nasrallah in particular constitutes a hard blow for one of the two competing parties. Nasrallah was the coordinator of the anti-Israeli alliance’s actions, and Lebanon was the platform from which they were carried out.. In 2023 alone, a total of 75 cargo planes from Tehran landed at Beirut’s Harari Airport, an airport controlled by Hezbollah forces.
On the afternoon of September 17, Israel launched “Operation Beeper,” a covert military action that cost the lives of 18 senior Hezbollah officials.
However, he was unable to reach the summit, the one that maintained the direct line to Tehran, Nasrallah. The secretary general of Hezbollah had been trained in the cradle of Shiism where he had contacts with Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr and with Abbas al-Musawiwho would succeed as leader of the Lebanese terrorist group. These contacts allowed him to maintain fluid relations with senior officials in revolutionary Iran, which made him the ideal link for the Persian country in its fight against Israel.
The question is why Israel decided to destroy Hezbollah’s leadership now and not before, if it was clear that what was happening in Gaza was directed from Lebanon. This question has several answers.
The first is that the situation in Gaza is now calmer, since control of the Philadelphia corridor limits Hamas’ supply capacity and, therefore, its combat capabilities.
The second is perhaps more complex and less known to the general public. At the beginning of September, Israeli intelligence became aware of a Hezbollah plan similar to that of October 7, but with a different scenario: the Galilee. Shiite militia intended to carry out similar massacre, including occupation of Israeli Galilee. The question is why.
Galilee, the region where Jesus spent his childhood and where he preached, is predominantly Arab-Christian. There are many cities where Christians are the largest group and even in some like Jish, Lebanese Christians (the Maronites) are the majority. Hezbollah is a terrorist, Shiite and proselytizing group that is trying to spread its revolution in all regions of the planet, notably in Yemen, Iraq, Europe and Latin America.
Obviously, Israel is no exception, because in addition to being the place in the world where the largest number of Jews reside, it is also a focal point for a large community of Arab Christianstheir enemies during the Lebanese Civil War.
And now what?
In recent months, Israel has eliminated the Hamas leadership (Saleh Al Arouri, Mohamed Meif, Ismail Haniyah…), to the leaders of Hezbollah and the various personalities involved in the management, coordination and execution of October 7. The assassination of Nasrallah and Hezbollah leaders will undoubtedly mean a temporary relief from war pressure on Israel and its population. But, before Nasrallah and Haniya, other leaders like Abbas al-Musawi (former secretary general of Hezbollah) or Sheikh Yassin (spiritual leader and founder of Hamas) They suffered a similar fate, and a few years later other, even more cruel rulers emerged..
World leaders, led by the United Nations Secretary-General, should be able to isolate the radicals and seek moderate options to build peace in a region that has lived for too many decades with violence as its main traveling companion.
Although Hezbollah is a deeply rooted group in southern Lebanon, with a structure greater than even that of the state in which it is based, it finds it difficult to continue attacking Israel. We cannot forget that over the past year, Hezbollah has terrorized the population of northern Israel by firing nearly 9,000 rockets and missiles. Once the leadership and key launch centers are dismantled, it appears that Hezbollah will have less ability to act in Israel, allowing it to focus on other fronts of the war.
On the other hand, even if the attack did not take place on Iranian territory, The great connection between Nasrallah and Iran portends a symbolic response from the ayatollahs. As happened in April with the death of Haniyah, if this response occurred it would not have serious repercussions for Israel, since Iran today has little capacity to directly harm its enemy. It remains to be seen what the future holds for the supreme leader. Khamenei and Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar.
Contrary to what has been written, an invasion of Lebanon by Israel seems unlikely. The objectives sought by Jerusalem would be achieved. Israel is not an expansionist state and the occupations it may carry out are aimed at ensuring its security and not at conquering more territory. If Israel’s projects in Gaza and Lebanon go well, the Jewish state could be on the threshold of a new period in which its neighbors have less capacity to fill the skies with missiles.
