Israel has several options if it decides to launch attacks against Iran following Tehran’s response to Tel Aviv’s attacks against Hezbollah on Lebanese soil, including the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah. Even as Western leaders urge restraint, a powerful attack is expected.
The objectives of these attacks can be military, economic or even nuclear, although Joe Biden said he had already communicated to Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet the contrary position of the United States regarding this type of attacks.
Iranian air defenses are relatively weak and Tehran is expected to have difficulty avoiding Israeli missiles or a bombing raid by its air forces, as became evident on April 19. In the attack that day on the city and military-industrial complex of Isfahan (in response to a previous Iranian missile barrage), Israel damaged part of a Russian S-300, the world’s best missile defense system. Iranian air defense. A coup that aimed to show Iran what Israel could do.
According to Fabian Hinz, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “if an attack on nuclear facilities is ruled out, the two main options for Israel are military or economic objectives.”
military objectives
Israel’s most direct response would be an attempt against all of Iran’s missile and drone bases which are underground, according to Hinz, “deep in the mountains” in some cases. He said while it is possible to bomb and seal their entrances, the bases are designed to withstand the most powerful conventional explosives and attacking them does not guarantee they will be disabled for future attacks.
Alternatively, Israel could repeat the attack on Iranian anti-aircraft bases, this time on a larger scale, targeting those defending Persian Gulf ports and the cities of Isfahan and Tehran.
A more complex attack could target military-industrial production, replicating and expanding the January 2023 drone attack on an arms factory in Isfahan.
But all of these attacks carry the possibility of calculation errors and the risk of unforeseen losses.
Economic infrastructure, oil terminals and refineries
An attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure is being considered as a possible response to Tuesday’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, with Biden saying on Thursday that option was on the table.
The Kharg oil terminal is the most talked about target. By some estimates, 90% of crude oil exports are handled there, primarily to China as a destination.
Near the border with Iraq, the Abadan refinery is another key facility. A significant part of the oil is managed there for Iranian internal needs.
According to Hinz, “Iran’s oil industry is very exposed” and attacking economic targets could have longer-term effects. “The Iranian economy is in difficulty and the regime still wants an easing of sanctions,” he said, recalling how, in late September, Israeli bombings against the Houthis in Yemen targeted fuel, electricity and port facilities in Iran at Ras Isa and Hodeida.
The key is whether an attack on economic targets constitutes a proportionate response to Tuesday’s Iranian attack. Iran said it selected military targets in that attack and its missiles targeted Israeli air bases, causing minor damage to Nevatim facilities and the headquarters of the Mossad spy agency. But it is also true that a school east of Ashkelon was hit by shells, causing serious damage to one of the classrooms.
The likelihood of Iranian retaliation is greater in the case of an attack on economic targets than in the case of a more limited attack on military targets. Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s chief of staff, said Tehran would respond to an attack with a new barrage, this time with missiles of greater range and magnitude. Last Tuesday’s attack “will be repeated with greater intensity and will attack the entire infrastructure of the regime,” General Bagheri said.
Selective assassinations and other covert methods
Israel could adopt another strategy: expanding its program of targeted assassinations in Iran. The assassination at the end of July of the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, already demonstrated that Israel was capable of killing in Tehran. According to an article in the New York Times, he achieved this by detonating an explosive device placed two months earlier in the guest house where he was staying.
Israel reportedly assassinated several top Iranian nuclear scientists. One of them is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, apparently killed in November 2020 by a remote-controlled machine gun.
But Israel does not appear to be considering a quiet reaction as an appropriate response to Tuesday’s direct missile attack. An attack for which Iran will “pay”, in the words of the Israeli Prime Minister.
Nuclear targets
Military experts believe that an attack on Iran’s network of nuclear facilities is impossible without direct military assistance from the United States. Natanz and Fordow, Iran’s two main centers for enriching uranium with a purity of 60%, are located underground, under dozens of meters of rock and concrete.
“The only conventional weapon that could probably achieve this is the American GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which weighs more than 12 tons and is more than 6 meters long, and can only be carried by large American bombers such as the B. -2 Spirit,” wrote Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill in an article published by the academic journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
One possibility is that Israel targets minor targets and delays Iran’s nuclear program by targeting centrifuge production facilities (necessary for the uranium enrichment process) and other similar sites. But the risk of any attack on the nuclear program is that it will make Tehran feel the need to accelerate the process of developing its atomic bomb.
As the authors of the article put it, “Tehran may consider that the only option it has to guarantee the security of the Iranian regime is to weaponize its nuclear program.”
Translation by Francisco de Zárate.
