At the same time as Hassan NasrallahHezbollah leader, announced his intention to continue the fight against Israel and called the explosions of various devices a “declaration of war”, Netanyahu ordered a campaign against Lebanon mixing force, threats and a touch of mockery.
From Nasrallah’s first words, the IDF began to bombing southern Lebanonin an operation aimed at destroying the terrorist group’s bases in the area. It didn’t stop there: in an act of intimidation, Israeli fighters They flew over the very site of the rally, breaking the sound barrier, causing a huge roar that barely allowed Nasrallah to be heard, and launching flares as a warning.
As you can see, Israel continues to play with fear as the main assetAt least twenty Hezbollah militants have died in just over 24 hours from the detonations of their locators and their walkie talkiesin a maneuver widely celebrated in Israel by the Mossad secret service. The pro-Iranian terrorist group is in such a state of shock that no one knows whether the attack will stop there or not. The intention of the Israeli fighters was none other than to remind them that they were still there and that, if they wanted war, as they so often announce, they could soon have it in the center of their capital.
This is also a message for different recipients. To begin with, of course, the Terrorists from South Lebanon who are faced with the dilemma of reaching an agreement soon – something Nasrallah seems to refuse out of pride – or risk an Israeli ground offensive at the worst possible moment. Not only has Hezbollah lost hundreds of militants and local leaders, it has also remained incommunicado. It was Nasrallah himself who asked his colleagues to give up their cell phones because he considered them too susceptible to Israeli interference… and he found what he found. These networks of communication and information exchange take time to rebuild and Israel is not willing to grant it.
In the last few hours there has been tank and infantry movements near the border and some speculate that if Hezbollah maintains its defiant attitude, war could break out at any time. Of course, Israel has not had a better opportunity in the last fifteen years and it would be strange if I wasted it.
Iran and Hamas in the spotlight
One of the other two recipients is of course Iran. Israel has already warned of what it is capable of by assassinating the political leader of Hamas while he was resting in a Tehran hotel. At that time, he himself Ali Khamenei He swore revenge and retribution, but it came to nothing. If Iran was cautious then, it has even more reason to be so today. It does not know to what extent Israel has become involved in its terrorist guerrilla warfare or what surprises it might have in store for the coming days.
The Persian country has repeatedly stated that if Israel attacked Lebanon, it would be forced to enter fully into the conflictas if it wasn’t already. What happened will probably make you think twice. Iran is the only one who can force Nasrallah to reach an agreement, as painful as it may be for its structure. We will see if they prefer to continue rushing and what consequences this will bring.
Among them is Hamas and, more specifically, its leader, Yahya Sinwarthe third reported by Israel with its attacks. Since his arrival at the head of the terrorist group, the organizer of the massacre of October 7 refused to negotiate absolutely nothing with Israel or the Arab countries. All proposals from Cairo or Doha have been rejected. Sinwar has been protected for months in the tunnels he himself built in Gaza and the guarding of the Israeli hostages is his responsibility.
Hostage Handover
Israel understands that without Hezbollah’s help and with Iran thinking, Hamas finds itself in a precarious position: Gaza is in ruinsThe organization has lost thousands of its soldiers and what remains is still hidden somewhere in the Gaza Strip. Perhaps, they understand in Tel Aviv, even someone who has made the destruction of the Jewish state his motive for life thinks that the time has come to give up.
In this sense, and according to the newspaper HaaretzIsrael reportedly offered Sinwar and his officers the possibility of leaving Gaza if hostages are released in exchange who are still alive and return the bodies of the deceased. This is a risky proposition, because it goes against what Netanyahu has said on several occasions about the total destruction of Hamas. Letting its most bloodthirsty leader escape would be difficult to explain to the public, especially to his ultra-Orthodox government partners.
That said, there would be no better time to present such an agreement: after what happened in Lebanon and with the return of the hostages to the country, Netanyahu’s popularity would receive such a boost that it would allow him to finally get rid of his defense minister, Yoav Gallantwith which he has been fighting for months, or even attempting an electoral advance, depending on the possibility or not of open war.
Austin cancels trip
While, USA observes the situation with genuine astonishment. No one told him anything about what Israel was planning.beyond a mere reference to a non-specific operation. Since October 7, the Biden administration’s goal has been to control the area as much as possible, maintain the conflict on the borders of Gaza and thus avoid an escalation of the war in the Middle East which would compromise the security of the region in general and in particular that of its many troops deployed there.
This Thursday, the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin IIIannounced that he was canceling his planned visit to Israel next week. This may be partly for security reasons – no one knows what will happen in the Middle East next week – but it should also be interpreted as a message to the Israeli government: We did not like what you did at all and we do not like what you did at all. Please know how much you can count on us.
The problem is that there are elections in a month and a half, and if a war breaks out in the Middle East, Washington will have a hard time staying out of it. It will have to get its feet wet once and for all: take care of its younger, pro-Palestinian voters by condemning Israel’s actions… or take care of its voters of Jewish origin and continue sending weapons to Tel Aviv as before. If Netanyahu had thought of the worst possible time to launch such an operation and harm his former friend Joe BidenI wouldn’t have found one like this. Let’s not rule out, in fact, that this is the case.
